Global Warming...the true facts ?

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hank

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I'm confused. Is the "Global Warming Movement" and the "people who benefit from global warming" the Western Fuels lobby's clients, they used to run a website called 'Greening Earth society' -- the people who say 'CO2 is life' and that everything gets better with warming, more plants, bigger crops? Or is it the people saying it's wrong to profit from it because it's doing damage to people?
 

DonShock

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Josey said:
.......We have hundreds of thousands of years of data. Air bubbles trapped in ice tell us what was in the atmosphere for the past 650,000 years. We also have tree rings and fossil tree rings and fossil pollen, etc......
This is one of the areas I have the biggest problem with, and it's the main foundation of the GW argument. It assumes that the proxy data is a proven and accurate representation of past CO2 levels. Then this data is compared to current actual CO2 measurements of levels and isotopes to prove that human produced CO2 is now higher than ever. And yes, most of the summary reports do draw the conclusion that GW is at an all time high and caused by humans.

However, when you go beyond the summaries and actually start looking at the raw data and the methodologies, there is a lot of questionable manipulation of the data that has been used to produce the results. And it's the response to those questions that is most worrying. Instead of providing the research and testing that support the reasoning for the data manipulation; they just try to discredit the questioners instead. Usually by pointing out that their studies were funded by certain sources while ignoring the fact that the GW researchers themselves receive more funding in proportion to the severity of their predictions.

Some of the assumptions and data manipulation, justified or not, necessary to produce the GW results:

1. Assume that the air trapped in ice cores is a pristine sample of historic air. But even this assumption produces some "anomalously high readings" for some more recent data points, so:

2. The upper areas of the ice are assumed to be permeable, so the air bubbles are assumed to be XX years younger than the ice in order to get the sample data to correspond to actual measurements in recent history.

3. Ice below a certain depth is assumed to be impermeable and thus representative of the air at that time even though experiments that have attempted to verify this "impermeability" using trace gases have failed.

4. Gas samples from the "air pockets" in the ice are assumed to be unchanged, with the ice acting as a perfect seal for the sample. But just like CO2 goes into solution in your soda under pressure and then comes out again when you release the pressure; the same thing can occur with ice. Gases can be forced into, out of, and move through the ice and water.

5. And this occurs even if the ice is perfectly smooth and intact. But in reality, there are lots of microscopic cracks that occur as the ice is compressed and decompressed multiple times through the deposition, burial, drilling, retrieval, and sampling processes.

6. When determining the average CO2 levels prior to the current industrialized period since WWII, only select data points were included in computing the average. These were all on the low end so the average was low. If all data are included in the average, it rises from 290ppm to 335 ppm, much closer to current measurements.


7. The very high current CO2 levels usually cited, 380 ppm IIRC, seem to be taken from Mauna Loa measurements. However, rather than use an average for the entire year, they use the data from the one month each year that is consistently the highest, May IIRC. So if you use an "average" sample from the past and a "peak" reading from the present, it will amplify the differences.

8. Large time spans of data are based on proxy data gathered from only one tree for some periods and only two trees for others. And other areas of the data used to produce the conclusions weren't based on actual data from any source. The "trends" from a few data points were just used to extrapolate data into the past to cover a time when there was no data.

9. The current IPCC report is not the actual report produced by the scientists, it is a "preview summary" prepared by bureaucrats. There have been some worrying statements reportedly made by those preparing the actual report about some changes being made to "clarify" the actual report in response to some of the criticisms of the preview.

10. Based on some of the info that came out after the 2001 IPCC report, it's clear that even the full report will need careful scrutiny. After the 2001 IPCC report it came out that there were numerous errors that when found and corrected invalidated some of the conclusions. And some participants in the original preparation of the report had their sections deleted from the report when they contradicted the conclusions that ended up in the report.

These were some of the things that stuck in my head after doing a lot of looking into the issues raised by this thread over the last several days. A lot of the references were just too long and too boring to try to quote directly and I didn't keep full track of all the links. But here are the two that I bookmarked because they were fairly understandable and had references that led me to a lot of the details.
Incorrect information on pre-industrial CO2
(This was the source of the chart above)
Replication of the Mann Hockey Stick
 

greenLED

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hank said:
the people who say 'CO2 is life' and that everything gets better with warming, more plants, bigger crops?
A little "science nugget" on the "CO2 is life" argument:

More atmospheric CO2 has the potential to, in the short term, promote autotrophic (plants and phytoplankton) productivity. The story gets a little more complicated than that, though. Sooner or later other resources necessary for plant growth will become limiting. What that means is that plants will initially benefit from more CO2, but will quickly "run out of fuel" on other things they need to sustain that initial increase in growth; "simple" things such as water, nitrogen, phosphorus, iron in oceans, etc.

Also, plants can become CO2 saturated. That is, it doesn't matter how much "extra" CO2 plants may have available for growth, they simply cannot use it (or they can, but less efficiently which, in turn, reduces growth).

So, whoever tells you CO2 is good, is not telling you the whole story.


Don, just let me point out that there are several independent proxy data sets used to construct paleoclimatic records. These are not limited to "bubbles" in ice; they also include tree rings, coral rings, boreholes, stable isotope studies, stratigraphy, etc. I'm not saying any of these are "perfect", but taken as a whole, they do provide a much more reliable picture of paleoclimatic conditions (with the advantage that being independent from each other, they can be used to check each other and reinforce or weaken trends observed separately in other proxies).
 
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DonShock

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greenLED said:
........Don, just let me point out that there are several independent proxy data sets used to construct paleoclimatic records. These are not limited to "bubbles" in ice; they also include tree rings, coral rings, boreholes, stable isotope studies, stratigraphy, etc. I'm not saying any of these are "perfect", but taken as a whole, they do provide a much more reliable picture of paleoclimatic conditions (with the advantage that being independent from each other, they can be used to check each other and reinforce or weaken trends observed separately in other proxies).
I don't question that there can be imperfections in science and still have it be valid and verifiable by other means. But the way much of this data has been changed doesn't seem to be in response to new and better information. Instead, the changes appear to be designed to produce a predetermined result by creating, eliminating, or just plain ignoring the data which contradicts the pre-determined conclusion. If these changes are the result of other science that provides a tested reason for the changes, why not provide the appropriate data and references to support the changes. Instead, the response is often to question the motives of the person asking why the changes were made. It's this behaviour that I find curious. If the GW deniers were just saying "it's not perfect" and "they're only trying to get more grants", I would probably just blow them off. But when they point out the contradictory data or show how the data used has been changed with little or no explanation, the response is not more science but questions about their motives. Right now, I see one side fighting science with more science. But I see the other side fighting science with the media and politicians. Since it is nearly impossible for anyone to fully investigate all the scientific claims and arrive at an independant judgement of their validity, I'm siding with the ones who seem to rely on science for their defense instead of those who just try marginalize their questioners. At least until more solid verifiable scientific evidence comes along to show definitively which side is correct.
 

Sub_Umbra

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greenLED said:
... :thinking: In all honesty, and with all due respect, I read your posts with great interest, but the way you phrase them raises a "conspiracy theorist" flag, and my skepticism radar lights up all over. Pardon my disbelief, but "Greens" intent on dominating the world? Hitler and Lenin? :shrug: Replace "GW movement" with "oil companies", "UN", or whatever, and the argument would fly with equal ease. If I were to discuss policy, I'd probably present my arguments in other ways. If I were to use the skeptics labels I referred to before, you'd fall onto the Randi modus operandi, and you've lost a listener in me...

GreenLED,

Just what is it about the way I've phrased my posts that makes you think I'm writing about any kind of conspiracy? Show me through quotes from my posts that your "conspiracy theorist" claim is valid -- or take it back. I took the time to answer your cheap ad homonym attack and you have not responded:

Sub_Umbra said:
I am no "conspiracy theorist," to use your phrase. In fact, I am the opposite. I totally concur with a statement made by Historian and Philosopher Thomas Molnar when he said (paraphrase):
...Conspiracies are almost always the product of lazy historians. History is complicated. Current events are so distorted that it is often very difficult to find out the truth about what has happened today. History is much more difficult to make sense out of. If you take shortcuts you will get the causal relationships wrong...
So, give me a chance to show you that I was not referring to conspiracies in any of my posts.

One of my major points of concern with the GW Movement is that the recommendations if and when implemented will create the opportunity for corruption and socialization on an unprecedented scale in the history of humankind. Note that at no time am I saying that there are a bunch of guys in a smoke filled room that are pulling the strings. I am not and have not said or implied that in any of my posts. For decades the FBI textbooks listed opportunity as one of the six major motives for all crime. Most of my arguments are about the opportunities presented by what the Movement proposes -- and ignoring them won't make them any less threatening to civil society.

Yes, I mentioned Hitler and some others, but that was only an attempt to give a remote idea of the scale of the changes being casually thrown around (and never explained) by the Movement. I'm no economic expert but I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I say that the economies destroyed by Hitler, Pol Pot and Lenin pale in significance when compared to our current world economy. The examples are actually understated when compared to the prize. I've obviously failed to get my point across. When I mention Hitler, Pol Pot and Lenin and what they did to the rights of their citizens and their economies, the real point is that they were only able to do it because their followers never DEMANDED answers to how the changes would be made and at whose expense. What I was trying to give examples of were not conspiracies at all, but how time and again modern man has lost everything because of his willingness to turn over huge chunks of power over every aspect of their lives to one entity or another without ever reading the fine print. It cost them dearly. Over less than five generations Socialism alone killed 110 million people at the hands of their own governments world wide.

The examples I've used are dramatic, but hey, they are dwarfed in scale by what has been proposed. Socializing the whole world all at once is way too dramatic for me. Some might think that this will be done without socializing the world and changing virtually every aspect of our everyday lives. I would answer that no information that would counter my fears has any part of The Movement's dogma. They normally rarely even weakly deny the socialization and they never talk about any measures that may be taken that will actively prevent it.

So from my point of view The Movement is no vast Left Wing conspiracy -- it's just a warm, fuzzy deal made up mainly of fine print written in invisible ink. I am horrified that so few on this planet see the countless, systemic similarities to all of the most deadly and costly fiascoes of the twentieth century.

I'd also like to give an example of how opportunity may be confused with conspiracy:
Suppose I wrote about a long, dark, narrow alley in a city. The alley has cars, garbage cans, stacks of pallets and other objects distributed throughout it's length that give people lots of places to hide. I could describe this alley as a very dangerous place -- a place so dangerous that many people are robbed, beaten and raped there every week.​
GreenLED, it is very important to understand that in the alley example above I am in no way implying that all of the thugs in the alley are involved in a conspiracy to commit crimes there. The alley only presents suitable conditions for many, many opportunities to commit crimes. That is an important distinction.

I devoted nearly a whole post to listing groups who benefit greatly by Global Warming. The post is still there. Like the thugs in the alley, many who profit from the opportunities presented by Global Warming are not required to be part of any conspiracy. Likewise they may act individually to protect their favorable environment just as different muggers may individually break streetlights to enhance their own work environs. The muggers do not have to engage in a conspiracy every time they do something that inadvertently may make another mugger's lot easier.

My examples of twentieth century history likewise do not point to conspiracy at all -- only that the broad ranging measures demanded and yet not explained by The Movement create a nearly identical set of opportunities for corruption and abuse that empowered most of the now fallen Socialist dictators of the last century.

I believe many will see that I never referred to any conspiracies in any of my posts.

I must also state that while I cannot know why you chose to take the conspiracy tack in reference to my posts I do know that to compare someone to a "conspiracy theorist", to use your exact phrase, is tantamount to calling someone a 'nut-case' -- someone whose ravings should be summarily dismissed by calmer folk. That tactic is yet another rhetorical device that has been used nearly endlessly in countless disagreements. As I said, I can have no absolute knowledge of your intent in the use of that phrase to describe my post, but I certainly may illustrate it's hackneyed use as a crass attack by countless others in the past to discredit those who disagreed with them.
I do not appreciate your groundless assertion that I am a "conspiracy theorist", to use your exact words. Your distortions and heavy handed characterizations of statements made in my posts constitute an ad homonym attack on my person and my credibility instead of questioning the merits of the statements I've made in my posts.

In spite of your high post count you appear blissfully unaware of the CPF adage, "Attack the post and not the poster."

Then you add the following line in a lame attempt to hold me responsible for something I have never written:
greenLED said:
...Show me published papers, verifiable data obtained through rigorous, repeatable methods and I may be interested...
Well, GreenLED, if that is the standard of proof that you would hold me to, it will be a fine standard to hold you to as well. You surely have no problem with me holding you to the same standard you've already demanded of me in writing have you? By all means show me any quotes from my posts that indicate that I ever implied even one conspiracy in our discussion on Global Warming. Yes, verify that your attack on me was based on something I actually wrote and not just an uncalled for cheap shot to discredit me.

It's now been roughly a day and a half since I rebutted your post and yet you have neither apologized for your personal attack nor have you provided any quotes from any of my posts to lend credence to your assertions about me personally. How is it that you find it so easy to demand proofs from me and yet you expect to be allowed to make any claims you like without ever being asked to prove that what you have written is true? I am not responsible for anything you write in your posts -- you are. If your intent was to ignore me you most certainly could have done so at any time in the past without staging an ad homonym, hit and run attack first. It is interesting that you should choose to ignore my posts only while I'm responding to your personal attack.

This thread is interesting in that it is quite representative of the broader GW debate going on outside CPF. You have demonstrated, up close and personal the numerous tactics that some Global Warming advocates fall back on in the broader, worldwide, day to day struggle when their carefully crafted rhetorical tactics aren't enough to bring their points home. I guess if name calling is one of the tactics you'll stoop to the rest of us should at least be forewarned.

Then, at the end of the very same post you write:
greenLED said:
...You know, it's actually refreshing to see this thread not being shut-down; this must be a CPF first. Kudos to y'all participating.
Nice touch, GreenLED.
 

greenLED

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Sub, an ad hominem attack on my part would require me to call you names or undermine your persona. Trust me, IF (and that's a big IF) I wanted to call you a conspiracy theorist, I would've said it loud and clear: "Sub, you are a conspiracy theorist". I did no such thing, and please don't take the above statement to mean that I think you are one; it is merely an example of what I would've said if I really thought that.

I questioned the phrasing of your message, not your person, your beliefs, nor your motives. I'm sorry that you misinterpreted my poorly written statements as a personal attack.

Since you talk about standards by which to gauge assertions... all of what I present can be found in peer-reviewed scientific journals. I have already provided links to specific published papers, e-mailed the associated .pdf files to interested parties, and would be happy to continue to do so.

If you could please provide (I don't demand things from people) the references to some of your assertions, it'd make my task of judging the information in your posts easier. That's all I respectfully ask; all I'm doing is asking for "developed sources" to learn more and gauge the value of the arguments being presented. For example, from the post you quoted yourself saying:

...they are dwarfed in scale by what has been proposed. Socializing the whole world all at once is way too dramatic for me. Some might think that this will be done without socializing the world and changing virtually every aspect of our everyday lives. I would answer that no information that would counter my fears has any part of The Movement's dogma. They normally rarely even weakly deny the socialization and they never talk about any measures that may be taken that will actively prevent it.

Could you please direct me to the GW Movement's statement of purpose? Any sources where I can learn more about their socialization plans? I see you mention "my fears"... That signals, in my mind, what your views are about a subject (which is a perfectly valid and sensible thing to do, and I can respect that), but does nothing to provide me with verifiable information about this intent of the GW Movement you talk about. People's feelings and opinions are very valid, but that doesn't imply the information on which those are based is. I just want to understand more about what you're talking about and where you're coming from.

You may be surprised, but I do understand and agree with some of the things you are saying. However my mindset urges me to ask for further verifiable information - that's simply how my mind works. If I were to talk about my own feelings, I'd say I feel you are projecting your socio-political frustrations onto me.



Right now, I see one side fighting science with more science. But I see the other side fighting science with the media and politicians. Since it is nearly impossible for anyone to fully investigate all the scientific claims and arrive at an independant judgement of their validity, I'm siding with the ones who seem to rely on science for their defense instead of those who just try marginalize their questioners.
Don, I completely agree with what you're saying (and sometimes they take turns at role-playing). :green: It's a tough task to navigate through the rough waters of pseudoscientific politics, watered-down science, and outright misinformation (as if the science by itself weren't complicated enough sometimes). It's even harder to separate one's feelings, personal biases and beliefs, from what data are showing - some simply cannot do that. Even those trying their best to see the greater picture and not take sides will be questioned.
 
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Sub_Umbra

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greenLED said:
...I'm sorry that you misinterpreted my poorly written statements as a personal attack.

Since you talk about standards by which to gauge assertions...
It is you who keeps bringing up standards. You're the one who is continually requesting I supply documentation that meets your standards to prove points that were never asserted in my posts. I posted your quote to that effect this morning -- look it up. If you can't read my posts and interpret them correctly you could at least make a half hearted attempt to read your own and at least glance at the post you're answering once in a while as you write. Try to pay attention.
greenLED said:
...If you could please provide (I don't demand things from people) the references to some of your assertions, it'd make my job of judging the information in your posts easier. That's all I respectfully ask; all I'm doing is asking for "developed sources" to learn more and gauge the value of the arguments being presented. For example, from the post you quoted yourself saying:
SubUmbra said:
...they are dwarfed in scale by what has been proposed. Socializing the whole world all at once is way too dramatic for me. Some might think that this will be done without socializing the world and changing virtually every aspect of our everyday lives. I would answer that no information that would counter my fears has any part of The Movement's dogma. They normally rarely even weakly deny the socialization and they never talk about any measures that may be taken that will actively prevent it.
For the life of me I have no idea why you would profess interest in this subject at this time. If you are interested in this kind of information you should go back and read the posts where I covered much of this over and over while you just kept answering by posting that you were only interested in the science:
greenLED said:
...I'm not here to talk politics or convince anyone to think like me (the world would be a screwed-up place)...
greenLED said:
...Sub, yes, climate change is both a political and economics issue. I prefer not to comment too much on those because I am only marginally familiar with those fields...
greenLED said:
...Finally, I just want to say that SubUmbra's posts are, like you say, "well thought out and well spoken." They are very valid concerns and I read them attentively. If I've chosen to ignore them (for the most part), it's because his arguments are mostly political...
The answers to your questions are in my posts. If repeating a point three or four times in detail failed to sink in I doubt that reposting any of it again tonight will have more impact on your comprehension. I know you said repeatedly you're not an expert in politics but it's not that tough. A great deal has been written about the nuts and bolts of Socialism in the last 90 years or so. This would probably be a poor place to start teaching a class on it. You seem to be having more trouble with it than anyone else. Some here have PMed me and I know that at least they understood what I wrote about. Reread my posts. Don't be so obsessed with the structure. Try to think more about opportunity. I posted quite a bit about opportunity in the last few days -- even in my last post. Don't dwell on structure. I haven't posted about conspiracies or movements with master plans. That's what you've been posting about and it has nothing to do with my posts. It's all there. Anyone interested may go back and read them anytime.
greenLED said:
Could you please direct me to the GW Movement's statement of purpose? Any sources where I can learn more about their socialization plans? I see you mention "my fears"... That signals, in my mind, what your views are about a subject (which is a perfectly valid and sensible thing to do, and I can respect that), but does nothing to provide me with verifiable information about this intent of the GW Movement you talk about. People's feelings and opinions are very valid, but that doesn't imply the information on which those are based is. I just want to understand more about what you're talking about and where you're coming from....
I think you are reading too much into my use of the word "Movement". Without going to a bunch of dictionaries in an attempt to 'cherry pick' a definition for you I went to Google and typed in, define:movement. Google spit out many definitions and one of them matched the context of my intent pretty well:
• a group of people with a common ideology who try together to achieve certain general goals; "he was a charter member of the movement"; "politicians have to respect a mass movement"; "he led the national liberation front"
Emphasis mine.

Grass roots movement -- Arts & Crafts movement -- there are many kinds of movements that are covered by that definition and some of them are not even political in nature. Do you think that the Impressionist Movement had a "statement of purpose"? So as far as your request for some "statement of purpose" goes, I don't have any knowledge of anything even remotely like that. If you thought I was referring to some secret document for world domination hidden somewhere in Al Gore's jet -- I wasn't. With many movements Historians write down things like that only after the movement has faded. Whether you approve of the word movement of not is of no import. I chose it because I thought it would work. When I looked it up in the easiest place I could copy and paste it into this post I found a usage that matched my meaning perfectly. Now I've spelled it out and you should have some idea of what I meant when I used it in the context of the post. As I said, don't get too hung up on structure that is not built into the word I used. Most of the questions you ask about my posts have to do with assumptions you make about things that are not even part of what I've said. Read the posts if you want the answers.

Try not to make my posts something they are not and there will be a better chance of understanding them -- if understanding them is what you want. These things that you bring up are not even issues. Life is too short. Just try harder.
 

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Speaking of ad hominem! :laughing:


Thanks for taking the time to type such a passionate reply, Sub. I wouldn't want to waste any more of your precious time, so I'll be under my rock drinking some of Darell's beer. :wave:



Edit to add:
In case somebody does want a primer on global warming politics, consider reading Chapters 10-12 in Barrie Pitock's book "Climate Change; Turning up the Heat". The ISBN is 0 643 06934 3. Of course there are many other published works on the subject.

I do read and keep up on the politics of climate change as well, but don't tell anyone. :sssh:
 
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pedalinbob

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greenLED said:
Speaking of ad hominem! :laughing:


Thanks for taking the time to type such a passionate reply, Sub. I wouldn't want to waste any more of your precious time, so I'll be under my rock drinking some of Darell's beer. :wave:

Does Darrell's beer have tiny batteries and a solar panel? ;o)

If you are ever in the Southeast Michigan area, there are some pretty cool micro-breweries--such as Frog Island beer, and Arbor Brewing--that make some really unique brews.

Oops..back on topic!
 

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Re: Global Warming...the true facts.

Josey said:
CO2 levels are not only extremely high, but the CO2 is tagged so scientists can prove that the increase comes from manmade sources...Exxon has been very aggressive about hiring scientists to promote its point of view, but the vast majority of independent scientists acknowledge that global warming is real, is caused by human activity and is a threat to our future and the future of our children.

Read this excellent newspaper piece by well-known author Orson Scott Card, which debunks the Global Warming Scam in a very convincing manner:

http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2007-03-04-1.html

Card makes the point that some of the so-called scientists promoting this scam are utterly cynical - they falsify the data and tinker with software until they get the results they want. They are perpetrating scientific fraud in the name of ideology.

.
 

bwaites

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Wow, Card says basically what I have been saying all along, (that the data and it's extrapolation do not support what global warming activists keep saying) and he provides the information from which he reached his decision, something that I haven't taken the time to track down, although I have read both the primary sources he quotes.

Why is it imperative to some of these people that global warming MUST be tied to CO2 levels?

I pointed out earlier that the rise began nearly 200 years ago and that at that point our use of fossil fuels was not high enough to have caused the problem, Card uses the actual data to point that out again.

CO2 levels are rising, but are they changing global climate? That issue still leaves a lot to be determined. That medieval warming period is what allowed the colonization of Greenland by the Vikings, and we, as yet, have not reached the point were Greenland would support the agriculture that it supported during that time frame, even though, as Josey and GreenLED have pointed out, CO2 levels are higher now than then.

Should we conserve fossil fuels? OF COURSE! But can we blame the people in developed countries for Global Warming? NOT ON THE BASIS OF CURRENT DATA!

Bill
 

Josey

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The arguments Bill and Ringzero refer to have been popularized by Patrick J. Michaels, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, an extreme right-wing think tank. Michaels views have been regularly and soundly refuted by other scientists and research journals.

Michaels receives massive funding from the coal industry. He has lied about his credentials. He has been proven to fudge data to fit the narrow point of view of the coal industry. In order to tamp down criticism, Michaels sues or threatens to sue scientists who disagree with him, and he has the big-coal money behind him to make those threats stick. He makes laughable claims, such as Kyoto was designed to impose such severe restrictions that developing countries will never rise out of poverty, when in fact those countries are exempt from Kyoto rules.

The IPCC and almost the entire mainstream of credible scientists who subject their research to published and peer-reviewed journals have shown that global warming is real and caused primarily by human activities, mostly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

The global-warming skeptics on this thread have yet to point to any meaningful body of published and peer-reviewed research that disputes the scientific concensus. Even Bush's own hand-picked panel of experts came to the conclusion that global warming is real and caused mostly by man-made CO2. For that reason, the Bush administration has been forced to hire energy-industry lobbyists to change the government's own scientific recommendatoins and force government scientists to lie or remain silent.

What the global-warming skeptics on this thread have pointed to is a range of right-wing skeptics who say 1) there is no global warming or 2) there is global warming but it is caused by the sun or 3) there is global warming but it is caused by cosmic rays or 4) there is no global warming and in fact we are going into an ice age.
 

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If that is true, and I have no doubt that Josey has done his research, (I have always found him to be well read!), I still find it interesting that the GW group refuses to acknowledge that the greatest global warming took place BEFORE the rise in CO2 levels.

I have pointed that out several times, and yet, no one addresses it.

I have NO problems with the CO2 level rise being real, I have REAL problems with it being the cause of climate change.

What caused the climate change that allowed the cultivation of crops in Greenland for hundreds of years before the Little Ice Age changed things? It certainly wasn't CO2 levels!

Once again, the data doesn't support the extrapolations made by GW supporters.

I agree with Josey's viewpoint on fossil fuels, we simply are stupid for continuing to use and abuse them. (Although coal is found in such abundance that we have at least hundreds of years of reserves here in the US).

That said, science by consensus is poor science, and the numbers are NOT being credibly reviewed and discussed. (That is probably true on both sides of the argument!) The old adage, "figures don't lie, but liars can figure" seems especially apropos here!

Bill
 

Josey

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Bill: I remember the Austrialian (I think) doctor who found that ulcers were caused not by stress but by helicobactor (sp?), basically a germ in our guts. His point of view was ridiculed by mainstream science, and he had to swallow some of these germs to give him self an ulcer and then cure the ulcer by killing the germs. He proved he was right. Mainstream science was wrong, but now mainstream science has been corrected, as it usually does when given enough time.

I'm not sure about the Greenland warming. There are other things that cause global warming. We have had periods of great warming and ice ages back when man-made CO2 was not an issue. So it is a complicated issue, especially when other factors such as air pollution are mitigating CO2 warming.

But for me, when the scientic consensus is so strong and has been growing for such a long period (time to self correct) and when the consequences are potentially so severe and when we have so little time, I think we have to take global warming seriously and do something quickly. But I don't think we will.
 

ringzero

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Josey said:
Bill: I remember the Austrialian (I think) doctor who found that ulcers were caused not by stress but by helicobactor (sp?), basically a germ in our guts. His point of view was ridiculed by mainstream science, and he had to swallow some of these germs to give him self an ulcer and then cure the ulcer by killing the germs. He proved he was right. Mainstream science was wrong, but now mainstream science has been corrected, as it usually does when given enough time.

Excellent analogy. Two Australian doctors stood alone against the overwhelming scientific 'consensus' of that time. They were called cranks, crazy, and corrupt by some of those in the medical establishment. However, they also turned out to be right.

Josey said:
But for me, when the scientic consensus is so strong and has been growing for such a long period (time to self correct) and when the consequences are potentially so severe and when we have so little time, I think we have to take global warming seriously and do something quickly. But I don't think we will.

Science doesn't operate by consensus. 99.999% of doctors believed the consensus view of stomach ulcer causation - and they were all dead wrong. Two doctors refused to accept the consensus and were eventually proved right.

The overwhelming consensus among physicists in the early 1900s was that Einstein was a crackpot. It took years of argumentation and careful experimentation before most physicists grudgingly began to accept his Theory of Relativity.

Many eminent physicists never did accept Einstein's theory. They retired, and eventually died off, freeing up space for younger physicists.


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Josey

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Bill: I looked up the warming period in Greenland from 800 to 1200. You are right, it was warmer and people could easily grow crops, until the Little Ice Age. Greenland appears to be very responsive to changes in global climate. Erik the Red settled in Greenland in about 982 after being expelled from Iceland. But there was not a lot of "green" land, and the Vikings settled where people are settled today. Greenland is warming fastest along the edges, where the glaciers are melting fast. Some of the interior glaciers are actually getting thicker because of increased moisture caused by global warming, according to scientists.

In just the last 30 years, the growing season on Greenland has increased by 120 days. I can't yet find any reason for the Medieval Warming Period in Greenland and northern Europe, but some scientists speculate that it was due to sun cycles or volcanic activity. Global warming is expected to cause a rise in tempertures twice as high in Greenland as in Europe.
 

DonShock

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Josey said:
The arguments Bill and Ringzero refer to have been popularized by Patrick J. Michaels, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, an extreme right-wing think tank. Michaels views have been regularly and soundly refuted by other scientists and research journals.

Michaels receives massive funding from the coal industry. He has lied about his credentials. He has been proven to fudge data to fit the narrow point of view of the coal industry. In order to tamp down criticism, Michaels sues or threatens to sue scientists who disagree with him, and he has the big-coal money behind him to make those threats stick. He makes laughable claims, such as Kyoto was designed to impose such severe restrictions that developing countries will never rise out of poverty, when in fact those countries are exempt from Kyoto rules.

The IPCC and almost the entire mainstream of credible scientists who subject their research to published and peer-reviewed journals have shown that global warming is real and caused primarily by human activities, mostly the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

The global-warming skeptics on this thread have yet to point to any meaningful body of published and peer-reviewed research that disputes the scientific concensus. Even Bush's own hand-picked panel of experts came to the conclusion that global warming is real and caused mostly by man-made CO2. For that reason, the Bush administration has been forced to hire energy-industry lobbyists to change the government's own scientific recommendatoins and force government scientists to lie or remain silent.

What the global-warming skeptics on this thread have pointed to is a range of right-wing skeptics who say 1) there is no global warming or 2) there is global warming but it is caused by the sun or 3) there is global warming but it is caused by cosmic rays or 4) there is no global warming and in fact we are going into an ice age.
Yet again, all the GW supporters are respected and credible and the questioners are all paid hacks. But still a lack of answers about the apparent manipulation of the data to produce the predetermined conclusion.

As for the scarcity of publication, many of the skeptics have detailed their attempts to get publicized only to be totally shut out. They seem to welcome the idea of having their work peer-reviewed since they know that would eliminate a lot of the criticism. But the publishers seem to fear the attacks of "How dare you lend them credibility" that they know would follow. To me, it seems like the GW proponents would welcome the chance to prove the science is as faulty as they claim it is. I checked out a lot of the websites, especially the RealClimate.org areas, where they "debunk" a lot of the skeptics, but it seemed to be just a lot of the same claims and original studies and no links to any real proof. If the skeptics claims are wrong, where are the quotes to prove they are lying or the follow up studies investigating their claims and showing them to be wrong.

I checked out some of the links provided by the GW supporters in this thread. Here's some of the phrases that the GW supporters use to describe the claims of the skeptics before they attempt to debunk them:

"True but not relevant..."
"....say the models and basic theory. As indeed it does......"
"Not quite as true as they said, but basically correct; however they misinterpret it."

That doesn't sound like liars that are totally unsupported by science to me. The complaint seems to be that they didn't put the proper "spin" on the data.

Here's some excerpts from a scientist's response to his his quotes being used to support the skeptics views:

"The science of climate change remains incomplete."
"Other elements remain more uncertain, ........."
"I am on record in a number of places complaining about the over-dramatization and unwarranted extrapolation of scientific facts."
"The science is not sufficiently mature to say which of the many complex elements of such forecasts are skillful."

Jeez, I don't know how those skeptics could have gotten the idea that this guy doesn't consider the science settled and irrefutable as the GW supporters claim.
 
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