What's the current theory on the ability to predict earthquakes? An increase in the number of small earthquakes suggests that a big one might be on the way? Or do small earthquakes release some of the stress and energy that has been stored up, thereby reducing the chance of a big quake?
Honestly, at a glance, either seems like it could be right, depending on the circumstances.
After a large earthquake you do have aftershocks. Before large earthquakes you may or may not have foreshocks. Yes, after large earthquakes, you could have smaller earthquakes relieving more pressure on the faultline (aftershocks). You can also have foreshocks along the faultline giving warning of a bigger quake coming. Within this month we have had several large earthquakes around the Ring of Fire. 7 have been 7.0 or higher. For the first few months of the year nothing worldwide was 7.0 or higher. Here's the list from the last 3.5 weeks:
April 1- 8.2 in Chile
April 2- 7.7 in Chile
April 11- 7.1 in Papua New Guinea
April 12- 7.6 in the Solomon Islands
April 13- 7.4 in the Solomon Islands
April 18- 7.2 in Mexico
April 19- 7.5 in Papua New Guinea
Here's the list of 7.0 and above quakes from 2010-2011:
January 3, 2010- 7.1 Solomon Islands
January 12, 2010- 7.0 Haiti*
February 26, 2010- 7.0 Japan
February 27, 2010- 8.8 Chile
April 4, 2010- 7.2 Mexico
April 6, 2010- 7.8 Sumatra, Indonesia
May 9, 2010- 7.2 Sumatra, Indonesia
May 27, 2010- 7.2 Vanuatu
June 13, 2010- 7.5 India*
June 16, 2010- 7.0 Papua, Indonesia
July 18, 2010- 7.3 Papua New Guinea
July 24, 2010- 7.6 Philipines
July 24, 2010- 7.4 Philipines
July 24, 2010- 7.3 Philipines
August 4, 2010- 7.0 Papua New Guinea
August 10, 2010- 7.5 Vanuatu
August 12, 2010- 7.1 Ecuador
September 4, 2010- 7.1 New Zealand
September 29, 2010- 7.2 Papua, Indonesia
October 25, 2010- 7.7 Sumatra, Indonesia
December 21, 2010- 7.4 Japan
December 25, 2010- 7.3 Vanuatu
January 1, 2011- 7.0 Argentina
January 2, 2011- 7.1 Chile
January 13, 2011- 7.0 Loyalty Islands
January 18, 2011- 7.2 Pakistan*
March 9, 2011- 7.3 Japan
March 11, 2011- 9.0 Japan
March 11, 2011- 7.9 Japan
March 11, 2011- 7.7 Japan
April 7, 2011- 7.1 Japan
June 23, 2011- 7.2 Alaska
July 6, 2011- 7.6 New Zealand
July 10, 2011- 7.0 Japan
August 20, 2011- 7.1 Vanuatu
August 20, 2011- 7.0 Vanuatu
September 3, 2011- 7.0 Vanuatu
September 15, 2011- 7.3 Fiji
October 21, 2011- 7.4 New Zealand
October 23, 2011- 7.2 Turkey*
December 14, 2011- 7.1 Papua New Guinea
*= not around the ring of fire
When we get massive earthquakes such as the 9.0 in Japan in 2011, or the 8.8 in Chile in 2010, or the 8.2 in Chile this month, there seems to be a somewhat clockwise rotation of earthquakes around the Ring of Fire that follows. The last time this happened in 2010-2011, the increased activity lasted around 2 years. So far, within 3.5 weeks we have had 7 7.0 or above earthquakes around the Ring of Fire and many volcanoes have become active as well. During 2010 the worldwide average of 7.0 or above earthquakes was 1.83 per month (22 in the year). During 2011 it was 1.58 per month (19 in the year). Not one month in 2010 or 2011 had more than 4 large earthquakes of 7.0 or above. Again, we have had 7 so far this month alone. This is not business as usual.