Pandemics and bioterror threats frighten me much more than events that seem to get the most coverage over the last few years, like hurricanes. With hurricanes and some other types of threats the population really has a lot going for it:
• 72 or more hours of warning prior to the event
• "Last minute" opportunity (of sorts) to stock up on food, water, RX meds, cells, etc
• Opportunity to flee if desired
Pandemic/bioterror events, however, leave no such options as they are come as you are partys. Official government response to serious events of this sort will involve what is referred to as Shelter In Place strategies. While I think that this is the proper response for those threats we must remember that the term Shelter In Place is used in an attempt temporarily avoid some of the panic that begins the instant that the word quarantine is used. Essentially that's all that Shelter In Place is.
Stepping back for a moment it's not hard to see why pandemic/bioterror events have the potential to create far more havoc than a hurricane, quake, fire, flood or major power outage. The vast majority of your neighbors don't have a two week supply of food/water/RX etc for their loved ones but as poorly thought out as their situation is, at least for many serious emergencies they may quickly do what they think will prepare themselves or just flee. Not so in the case of a pandemic/bioterror event.
I written a few times that in any serious disaster you will most likely actually be hit with two disasters: the first is the event itself and the second disaster will be the ill-prepared, poorly thought out response from your local, regional and national governments. In a pandemic/bioterror event we will likely face a third disaster in addition to those just mentioned -- because of the Shelter In Place response and the overwhelming lack of accepting responsibility on a personal and family level you will likely find yourself cooped up in your house as your foodless, waterless neighbors quickly go nuts and start trying to think of ways to keep their kids from starving.
They won't be allowed to flee. The quarantine will go far beyond the official plan in many locales. History tells us that panic will cause local LE and often ordinary citizens to block roads, highways, railways, airports, etc -- these unofficial actions will just be self preservation taking over and will occur here and there in addition to the national government's quarantine effort. It will be hard to find people in civil transportation who will want to leave their families and expose themselves to what's out there.
What quarantine/Shelter In Place really means is that everyone will be forced to sit tight with their families where they are, with whatever they've got on hand while the government begins the hugely complex task of designing and implementing ad hoc distribution systems for food/water, RX meds, and energy -- perhaps on a national scale. It's also important to realize that just because you hear on your radio that the Authorities are beginning to distribute food (or whatever) at various points that definitely does not mean that you will want to be among the first to have to rely on them. These new distribution networks certainly will not work well, especially in the beginning. When they begin they will be totally overwhelmed. Some will go there for what was promised on the radio and they will die there. You will need to listen to your radio and have enough stock so that you won't have to rely on the new net until it's safer. While it may seem obvious, a three week stock will give you more options than a two week stock and a two week stock will be much better than just one week if only for the above reason. You don't want to be in the mobs that show up in the beginning of mass distribution.
This all means that the threat of a breakdown of the social order will have much greater potential in these scenarios. It means that no matter how well stocked you are you may have to take early action to protect yourself from those outside your house. Now is the time to stock that big roll of six mil black plastic for blacking out windows.
In the aftermath of Katrina I couldn't wait for my neighbors to get out. Unprepared neighbors are a very real threat to preppers.
The Bug-Out-Bag is a great tool but it should be mentioned that it will be of limited utility in quarantine situations.
