jtr1962
Flashaholic
After reading several EV threads it suddenly occurred to me that we're now living in a time when so many technologies which were used for literally decades, even generations, are poised to become obsolete in the coming decade. By obsolete I don't mean that they will no longer exist, but rather that they will be made in such small numbers as to be insignificant.
Incandescent lighting is obviously the first thing which comes to mind. Within probably five short years it will be as hard to get an incandescent lamp as it is presently is to get a tube stereo. Now if incandescents were the only long-lived technology poised to become nearly extinct it wouldn't be so remarkable. After all, new technologies always displace old ones. It's just that these changes usually don't happen within the same life time.
It now seems that the demise of the internal combustion engine, at least for ground transportation, is imminent. Five years ago almost nobody would have said LEDs will be the next revolution in lighting. Well, EV technology is probably where LED technology was 5 years ago, relatively speaking. It's only a matter of time now before the rumble of the internal combustion engine goes the way of the chuffing of the steam locomotive. The pieces are already in place. It's just a matter of building up critical mass.
Magnetic data storage is yet another technology ready to bite the dust. As we've seen, hard-drive manufacturers are coming up against real physical barriers to increasing storage capacity. The rate of capacity increase has slowed to a trickle, unless of course one looks at solid-state where it's more than doubling annually. How long before solid-state overtakes magnetic storage not only in terms of capacity, but also cost per GB? I'd say about five years. Other than cost, solid-state storage is inherently better in every way than magnetic storage even now.
These are just three examples I've come up with in the few minutes of rare free time I had to post on CPF today. All have been around in one form or another for at least 50 years (over 100 in the case of incandescents and internal combustion engines). There are others which seem about ready for a major change although no breakthroughs have come so far. Mechanical refrigeration will eventually be replaced by solid state, but thus far nothing promising has made it out of the lab. Aeroplanes will probably be replaced by maglevs in evacuated tubes spanning continents, but the logistics of building such a system means it's probably decades away. Still, these are things which may pass within the lifetime of many reading this.
Any others? While it can be said that change is the only constant in the universe, the remarkable way in which old technologies are now rapidly being displaced by new ones which are better in every way is breathtaking. Oh, I almost forgot. Decentralized power generation is another thing coming soon with the advent of cheaper solar power. Once Home Depot sells "solar roofing shingles" you'll know that time has arrived.
Incandescent lighting is obviously the first thing which comes to mind. Within probably five short years it will be as hard to get an incandescent lamp as it is presently is to get a tube stereo. Now if incandescents were the only long-lived technology poised to become nearly extinct it wouldn't be so remarkable. After all, new technologies always displace old ones. It's just that these changes usually don't happen within the same life time.
It now seems that the demise of the internal combustion engine, at least for ground transportation, is imminent. Five years ago almost nobody would have said LEDs will be the next revolution in lighting. Well, EV technology is probably where LED technology was 5 years ago, relatively speaking. It's only a matter of time now before the rumble of the internal combustion engine goes the way of the chuffing of the steam locomotive. The pieces are already in place. It's just a matter of building up critical mass.
Magnetic data storage is yet another technology ready to bite the dust. As we've seen, hard-drive manufacturers are coming up against real physical barriers to increasing storage capacity. The rate of capacity increase has slowed to a trickle, unless of course one looks at solid-state where it's more than doubling annually. How long before solid-state overtakes magnetic storage not only in terms of capacity, but also cost per GB? I'd say about five years. Other than cost, solid-state storage is inherently better in every way than magnetic storage even now.
These are just three examples I've come up with in the few minutes of rare free time I had to post on CPF today. All have been around in one form or another for at least 50 years (over 100 in the case of incandescents and internal combustion engines). There are others which seem about ready for a major change although no breakthroughs have come so far. Mechanical refrigeration will eventually be replaced by solid state, but thus far nothing promising has made it out of the lab. Aeroplanes will probably be replaced by maglevs in evacuated tubes spanning continents, but the logistics of building such a system means it's probably decades away. Still, these are things which may pass within the lifetime of many reading this.
Any others? While it can be said that change is the only constant in the universe, the remarkable way in which old technologies are now rapidly being displaced by new ones which are better in every way is breathtaking. Oh, I almost forgot. Decentralized power generation is another thing coming soon with the advent of cheaper solar power. Once Home Depot sells "solar roofing shingles" you'll know that time has arrived.
