Noob perspective...
I think it could be a while. Unless LED manufacturers/designers are urgently working to improve the thermal efficiencies of their emitters. Unfortunately that does not seem to be the case. Brighter bins are becoming more and more available, but that doesn't appear to be the big jump in output you are discussing. The next BIG step at least for Cree and Seoul appears to be multi-die emitters. IMHO that steers us away from the small/compact EDC direction, because these emitters will generate 4x the heat as their single-die counterparts.
On the one hand, its comforting to know the small Q2/5, P4, R2 EDC lights will hold their own for quite some time, since there is nothing earth-shattering right around the corner... thats thermally stable. That $60 Malkoff you just bought won't really be out-dated any time soon:thumbsup:. On the other hand its a little discouraging that emitter designers are taking a "bigger/more is better" kind of approach, rather than refining the current single die designs for thermal efficiency.