Rita - Crying Wolf

The first two posts here were removed from the "Hurricane Rita check in and roll call" thread. Being off topic to the thread designated specifically for points of interest of those involved, I created this separate thread for this topic. - Empath

Torchman Edit: I wanted to put the paragraph from IDLEPROCESS that prompted this response in here in front.

"A buddy of mine in the Houston area didn't evacuate and described it as US Media: the boy who cried wolf ... evidently other than the massive traffic jams that he observed, nothing exciting happened to justify the massive evacuation of places so far inland."
Idleprocess in the Hurricane Rita Check In Thread.

Please note I do not consider any of this more than a discussion, I'm not offended or trying to offend. Torchman

U.S. Media: The Boy Who Cried Wolf. I like that, but I'm of two minds on it.

It weakened and turned east, putting us on the outer edge of the clean side. Had we taken a hit on the dirty side, and it stayed a strong Category 4, things would have been much different. It's easy to say that the media AND the government over reacted here in hindsight. And let's not forget the Katrina factor. Besides, did the boy who cried wolf actually see one coming and it turned away, or did he just lie? I can't seem to remember..:laughing:

People died during the evacuation, somewhere between 20-30 that I know of. Haven't heard of any in this area dying from the storm. Gas is quite scarce, and still will be for a few days. Whatever govt. says, I think the evacuation, even if the reports are true of it being the largest in this country's history, shows massive room for improvement. We should learn from this, and I think we will.

Agree with the comment of it being more of a drill, and I'm glad it was. I know I will handle things differently next time. I will now have a store of cut to size plywood on hand. I will not understimate how long it takes to get ready either. I know to have way more supplies than for just me, we had a neighbor that owns a vacant house here show up from NY with nothing, no food, not water, nothing. No water on at his empty house here either. I would have given him supplies in the worst, but was not prepared for that, as none of the other neighbors were either.

I'm emotionally drained for many reasons from this. I'm not a fan of the media or anything, I do minimal news. But all the conditions were right for an Orson Welles War Of The Worlds scenario, except the Martians were real in this case, they just weakened and went elsewhere.

Better to have to say over reacted than under.

<<...media cried wolf...>>

Good grief; what do you want???

As Torchman said, it could have easily gone the other way. Ask those from extreme southwestern Louisiana if they aren't glad they di-di'ed.

State and local government here in Louisiana have been castigated and vilified for not acting sooner and more forcefully during Katrina's approach. The bald tuth is, Katrina was just another hurricane, out of many that have threatened south Louisiana over the years. It didn't really get noticed here until less than two days before it hit, because it strengthed VERY rapidly and then turned north unexpectedly.

The media blitz and enforced evacuations for Rita were nothing more than a realization that NONE of these storms can be taken lightly. We watched Rita coming for almost a week. Yet, the initial projections of where it would hit were off by over 100 miles.

Moral of the story; you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't...

I think the problem is human perceptions.

When the alarms are valid and save lives, everyone is happy. After a while, people start to forget why the alarm is important simply because it's worked so well for so long. Eventually you start hearing "We had a warning like that last year, and no one died. We might as well stay put."

We see the same thing with flu shots. The gov warns of an upcoming epidemic so everyon gets vacinated, so there is no epidemic. After about 3 years, people decide it's just a bunch of hype and don't get vaccinations. The flu becomes widespread and people pay attention for a few more years.

Rita was not crying wolf unless they could reasonably (and accurately) forcast the decrease in storm intensity.

Daniel

We lucked out on Rita,
It turned north, hit the cold water and slowed down. The thing slid between Houstan and New Orleans which was the perfect place for it to hit.
What Mother Nature has proved is... don't mess with Mother Nature!

Speaking of preparation, it might help all these hurricane-prone areas immensely if they did two things. First and most important, revise building codes to require all new structures to be capable of withstanding a Cat5 storm. Basically, this means reinforced concrete construction floor to roof with heavy gauge steel storm shutters. Naturally, this does nothing for existing structures but after the next big one or two hit and knock those structures down they will be replaced with hurricane proof ones. More expensive? Of course, and I'm sure you'll hear bitching about how people can't afford it, etc. Well, consider it part of the cost of living in these areas just as making structures earthquake-proof is part of the cost of living in California. Also, spending a little more now to save lots of money later makes sense. How many people are literally wiped out when one of these things hit? If they had built their houses better that need not have happened. Another bonus here is if your house is strong enough to ride out a Cat5 storm that means you don't need to evacuate. Seeing what a disaster it was to evacuate a large city like Houston I think avoiding the need to evacuate, except in areas likely to get hit with floods, would save untold aggravation and money.

The second thing has to do with power. Being without power after a storm, even if your house is intact, can range from uncomfortable to deady. For starters all your refrigerated food spoils. After that you have no lights. Most importantly you have no air conditioning. Since most of the places where hurricanes hit are very hot this is no small thing. You can literally die of heat exhaustion in an unairconditioned house. Anyway, putting power lines underground so that they can't be affected by a storm would largely do away with the problem. Again, this costs money, but then again so does fixing blown down power lines over and over again.

As for evacuating, we seriously need to rethink how it will be done. As a rule I think evacuating in personal cars should be out because of the congestion it creates. Rather, use buses and trains whenever practical. I don't believe many of either exists in Texas unfortunately. Our dependence on the auto is our Achille's heel to evacuating large numbers of people. At least should NYC need to be evacuated we can use subways to take people from coastal areas to parts of the city further inland not affected by flooding. Should evacuating the entire city be needed, the subways tie in with Amtrak and commuter rail lines. Moving 8 million people out in the course of a day or two probably would be doable if planned properly. After all, the subways carry well over 2 million on any normal working day. More of the country should consider building rail lines as they would allow fast evacuation of large numbers of people. The alternative was what we saw, namely traffic moving slower than my 275 pound father can walk. I'll also add that despite our many alternatives to the auto I'm still very worried about the scenario in New York should evacuation be needed. I highly doubt much in the way of advance planning for it exists. Just because we can do it smoother than most places doesn't mean we will unless we make better plans.

I heard one saying once which I think is applicable to what I see going on in hurricane-prone areas-"Doing things the same way over and over again while expecting a different result is the very definition of insanity." Unless construction practices and automobile dependency are changed, these areas are going to experience the same types of problems over and over again. It's a given that most places down there will be hit by a big hurricane at least once every decade or two. Not planning for it in every way makes little sense.

"An ounce of preparation equals a pound of cure." As true now as it was when that saying was invented.

I half expected that kind of response - it's "crying wolf" when you get away lightly and "didn't do enough" when you get hit. No matter what you do. Reminds me of our variation of Yoda's famous line, "Do or do not, you're still gonna get f$@%ed anyway".

Personally I'd rather they evacuate because better to leave people stranded on the freeway (I know it sucks) compared to letting them die in their own homes as the floodwaters rise.

From what I could gather, Rita did have the energy to do damage and did just that. Her path was unknown. If there is a drunk driver heading your way down the road do you get out of the way or play chicken with him?

It seems to me that there are valuable lessons learned from both responses to these latest hurricanes. The last fire drill I was in was in elementrary school as I recall. If the residents here in the bay area had to evacuate for some reason, *we* would end up stupid and parked on the freeways and out of gas and I suppose we could blame the media and the government but the government is *our* government and the succesful media have been playing to our pleasures all along. :thinking: Just as there is no longer such a thing as "death by natural causes", we should be insured of our safety and proper guidance from our elected officials regardless of what the case might be!

what Don and Kevin said. it's better to evacuate for a category 5 Hurricane than having to clear the city full of dead bodies afterwards.

I live in California, I was a little kid when the Loma Prieta Earthquake destroyed my home town of Santa Cruz. I envy those in Hurricane country in that at least they can predict the disaster....

Nick

Yeah, gotta admit - living in major earthquake country...it's not "if" - it's "WHEN"!!

Pretty scary - we try not to think about it but must be prepared!!

Amen. Funny thing, the city I live now(BErkeley), if any Earth QUake over 6.0 does happen (I live a quarter mile away from the Hayward Fault, which is due any ttime now...), half the city will be leveled, including my house, the estimate puts the potential deaths at hundred of thousands...

At least my room will be lit...LOL

Houston was probably "over evacuated" because of press breathless press coverage. From the Beldar Blog (lawyer that lives in Houston):

City of Houston evacuation only plans on people leaving flood prone areas near the coast/port (scroll down a bit).

However, so many people left from other parts of Houston, they now need a plan for those areas to return.

In the end, Rita hit up the coast (to the North East) of Houston--I am not sure if that area was part of the initial evacuation, but officials (at the time) were asking people to not return yet.

What would have happened if Rita hit dead center on Houston at maximum strength? Would the people who left even though they weren't in the official evacuation zones been congratulated --I don't know.

-Bill

McGizmo said:

From what I could gather, Rita did have the energy to do damage and did just that. Her path was unknown. If there is a drunk driver heading your way down the road do you get out of the way or play chicken with him?

Click to expand...

Don puts it so much more eloquently than I could ever hope to.

For those choosing to stay behind and engage whatever's coming their way head-on, that scenario kinda reminds me of the last instalment of the Matrix trilogy, where Neo goes to the machine city and is asked by the machines.. "What if you fail?"

"I won't."


... how many of us can say that - and believe it?

Relaying one comment started a new thread, eh?

That was my friend's analysis - a Houston native, with access to all the extended information presented by local media that you just don't see from the outside.

I believe that most damage from past hurricanes in Houston was to low-lying areas. The near-total evacuation of the city ... who's to say if that was required. Galveston and most low areas near the bay and shipping channel should be evacuated from what I've gathered.

I would expect governments to utilize some of their impressive emergency powers to help aid and organize evacuations, especially if personal vehicles are going to be the primary means of escape. The free market doesn't seem to perform so well when it comes to dealing with emergencies ... although the painful mechanics sure come into play afterwards and work their magic during the recovery.

Wolf maybe... (I haven't found the check-in thread which I thought was sticky!).

This is my first time online since Friday last. We still don't have power, though it gets closer by the day. We have a 5kw generator (that we have had for several years now) and it gives AC to two rooms, keeps two fridges cold, and provides for TV and a few other things. Also with one AC offline, it runs our waterwell. Right now it's powering the CPU, Moniter and Modem (through a UPS as I ain't completely stupid!).

We had to bug out of here Saturday afternoon (thinking we had it ****ed) due to fear of the Lake Livingston dam collapsing, which thankfully didn't happen!. We got back home on Monday, and I only started sleeping good since putting AC in my room and the use of Earplugs against the generator.

My buddy that stayed behind in Houston lost one Silver Maple tree (which didn't hit anything vital) and we lost most of a rotten Oak, and a fence to a tree from the empty property next door. Also we lost some shingles, awnings and a bit of siding.

It's hotter than hell in front of this 'puter, so I'm gonna sign off after this post. I'll be back when the power returns!