Technological obsolescence in our times

[PhotonWrangler]

It occurred to me that computer technology ages in terms of dog years.

Having said that, a CRT still makes the best picture of all display technologies currently on the market. I look at a lot of HDTV in my lines of work and it's my opinion that you still can't beat glass for a high-res picture with zero motion artifacts, excellent brightness and contrast ratio, a HUGE color gamut, and a full 180 degree viewing angle, all rolled into a single package. Yes they're heavy and bulky, and some sets have trouble with beam convergence, especially towards the edges, but overall they're still a good technology.

I learned somethign interesting regarding perception and display technologies. I've been in many situations where a crappy signal was being displayed on a flat-screen tv (LCD or plasma) when someone walks by and exclaims "Wow, what a great picture!" What they're really saying is "Wow, what a FLAT picture!"

Thjis phenomenon was muchg more pronounced when flat screen displays first came out, but it still prevails today. I've also learned that the presence of a really good set of speakers will make the picture appear to be better to the viewer.

No, I'm not a Luddite - far from it. I just knows what I sees...

 

[Eugene]

For all the talk of personal freedom autos ostensibly give, I tend to think I have more by not owning one. Freedom from paying for gas, insurance, registration, repairs, the car itself. Freedom from wasting time in court if I screw up while driving. Freedom from spending months in rehab if I get in a bad accident. Freedom from worrying about where to park the thing. All the time allegedly saved by owning an auto is negated by the extra time working to pay for it, and the time to service it. Of course, people are very bad at factoring all that in. They complain if they wait 10 minutes for a bus, but somehow spending the same 10 minutes to gas up their car, or to find a parking spot, doesn't bother them. Or the hour totally wasted driving themselves to work whereas they could be doing something else if they took a train. Or for that matter the very poor utililization rate of a very expensive capital investment (that $40K Lexus is usually sitting unused for 22 or 23 out of every 24 hours). Thanks to clever advertising, people are totally irrational when it comes to cars. And because the majority in the US have never used public transport extensively, they really have no frame of reference for a fair comparison. How can someone say they like traveling by car better if they've been on a train twice in their lives? I've used both modes extensively. Give me a train any day of the week despite any drawbacks. I'll take them over the vomit-inducing fumes and bumpy ride typical of automobile travel, not to mention the constant, excessive accelerations/decelerations for obstacles, signals, etc.

I've ridden on bus, train, plane before. Lets see, stand in numerous lines waiting for "security" to check everything then sit in a waiting room until they board. Then you squeeze into a seat and the person in front of you reclines theirs into your lap so you get to do nothing but count their hair for the next two hours. This was before 9/11 when security was lax and you still waited in line for longer than you were on the plane.
Then the buses and trains, sitting beside someone who forgot to shower that week or smells like an ash tray.
I won't waste $ on any Lexus, a Chevy truck is the most fancy I'll ever own because it has some utility, I can throw crap in the back and haul it when I need to. Insurance is cheap since its a truck and service and maintenance is about an hour every 6 months, sure I get my hands dirty but I shower afterward and its done. If I could have found it with a manual transmission and no A/C or power crap I would have, but I would have had to special order it that way and have bought new so it was cheaper and easier to buy a used one and be done with it. Someday when EV's are practical I'll buy one but for now a gas driven vehicle is what I have to use, unless they can make a law preventing dumb people from getting on public transportation.

 

[Diesel_Bomber]

I don't see the I/C engine disappearing anytime soon. Maybe for short and medium range trips in a light vehicle, but the technology just does not exist for many people to have the range and hauling capacity they need. Many of the places I'm towing/hauling to and from don't even have roads, much less power lines.

Eventually? Sure. Soon? Nope. :buddies:

 

[jtr1962]

I don't see the I/C engine disappearing anytime soon. Maybe for short and medium range trips in a light vehicle, but the technology just does not exist for many people to have the range and hauling capacity they need. Many of the places I'm towing/hauling to and from don't even have roads, much less power lines.

Larger vehicle=more room for batteries. I actually remember reading somewhere that using the same percentage by weight of batteries gets you four or five times the range in an 18-wheeler versus a sedan. In other words, you can probably make a battery-powered 18-wheeler with a 750 mile range right now. Exactly how far offroad do you need to go? I don't think there's anyplace in the US which is a 750 mile round trip from the nearest power line, or even a 200 mile round trip for that matter.

Speaking of 18-wheelers, I can easily see them disappearing from long-haul trucking. Picture this scenario. People move to EVs. This means far less gas tax revenue. The truckers continue using diesel. Taxes on diesel are raised to make up for the shortfall. This puts trucking at a huge disadvantage to railways which by then will start electrifying. Most of our heavy interstate cargo starts moving via rail. Actually, that's already true, but under this scenario it pretty much all ends up on rail. With the last funding source for the Interstates gone Congress has a choice of either using general funds for Interstate highways, or just letting them decay completely. I have no idea which choice they would make. Given that a lot of the system is in need of expensive repair which we can't afford even now, I suspect the latter will happen. In fact, with cargo going on class 1 freight railroads, and people going on a new high-speed rail system, the Interstate highways themselves may well end up obsolete. I'm not adding this to my list of predictions however. This picture is much more complex than I painted. I think it's a given rail will have a huge resurgence just by virtue of it's superior efficiency, but who knows exactly how it will affect other modes. I offered up a somewhat plausible scenerio but the facts fit many others.

 

[DM51]

Just imagine how much more that 18-wheeler is going to WEIGH with enough batteries in it to give it a range of 750 miles. It will be enormously heavy. That makes for safety issues (stopping distance etc) and more wear on tires and roads. Increased road wear would be a significant issue, as it is proportional to axle weight and IIRC it is an exponential increase rather than a linear one. More road wear = more $$ in repairs, but also more bitumen = more OIL. Back to square 1...​

 

[PlayboyJoeShmoe]

And just as Railroad doesn't go everywhere people are it also doesn't go everywhere freight needs to go. Containers get pulled up and down Hwy 59 and Hwy 45 CONSTANTLY. Freight companies bring stuff to our shop on 18 wheelers.

I STILL don't think there will be a sea change while I'm alive.

 

[Diesel_Bomber]

Larger vehicle=more room for batteries. I actually remember reading somewhere that using the same percentage by weight of batteries gets you four or five times the range in an 18-wheeler versus a sedan. In other words, you can probably make a battery-powered 18-wheeler with a 750 mile range right now. Exactly how far offroad do you need to go? I don't think there's anyplace in the US which is a 750 mile round trip from the nearest power line, or even a 200 mile round trip for that matter.

Speaking of 18-wheelers, I can easily see them disappearing from long-haul trucking. Picture this scenario. People move to EVs. This means far less gas tax revenue. The truckers continue using diesel. Taxes on diesel are raised to make up for the shortfall. This puts trucking at a huge disadvantage to railways which by then will start electrifying. Most of our heavy interstate cargo starts moving via rail. Actually, that's already true, but under this scenario it pretty much all ends up on rail. With the last funding source for the Interstates gone Congress has a choice of either using general funds for Interstate highways, or just letting them decay completely. I have no idea which choice they would make. Given that a lot of the system is in need of expensive repair which we can't afford even now, I suspect the latter will happen. In fact, with cargo going on class 1 freight railroads, and people going on a new high-speed rail system, the Interstate highways themselves may well end up obsolete. I'm not adding this to my list of predictions however. This picture is much more complex than I painted. I think it's a given rail will have a huge resurgence just by virtue of it's superior efficiency, but who knows exactly how it will affect other modes. I offered up a somewhat plausible scenerio but the facts fit many others.

Again, I disagree. Oregon has already considered changing road tax laws to charge by the number of miles driven instead of the amount of gasoline consumed, simply because a Prius that gets 55mpg wears the road just as much as my STi that gets 20, or older vehicles which get far less.

The energy required to move a vehicle off road, on loose dirt, gravel, rocks, mud, up hills, etc. is far more than it takes to move the same vehicle on flat pavement, so mileage estimates can't be compared. The tires and drivetrain are optimized for traction, not efficiency. Add enough batteries to my truck to get me where I need to go and back again, and I won't have any cargo capacity left for hauling my tools in or towing a piece of equipment out on a trailer. There'd be no point in making the trip.

Lastly, two reasons I wouldn't be willing to give up my individual vehicles to ride a train no matter how "outdated" they are: fun and independence.

I know you, JTR, don't find driving fun. But a lot of us REALLY do. Throwing a high power mid engine sports car through the twisties is the most fun I know how to have with my clothes on. Riding a train is just that, RIDING along as a passenger. It's about as exciting, to me, as eating cold mashed potato sandwiches on white bread while blindfolded.

My truck provides me with over a thousand miles of range when it's fuel tanks are full. A thousand miles that I'm not dependent on anyone else for. How far do you get on a train without depending on someone else? It doesn't even get to the station near your house without you depending on someone else to get it there. 'Nuff said, as far as I'm concerned.

I know I'm weird and that my opinions are by no means universal. I'm thankful we all have the freedom to make our own choices in these matters.

I really enjoy these discussions. :buddies:

 

[2xTrinity]

As far as the issue of ICEs disappearing, I don't see that happening simple due to the poor energy desnsity of batteries compared to liquid fuel (160 Wh/kg for LiIon, 13800 for diesel). However, I do see more robust ICE/electric hybrid combinations coming out -- including plug-in hybrid vehilces which have enough battery capacity to handle short trips off battery power -- for daily drivers, that could reduce most fuel cost (grid power, especially at night, is quite cheap). I also think that Series-hybrid makes more sense though than the parallel configuration we have now in most cars. By implementing an electric drivetrain powerful enough to drive the whole car, just enough batteries to cover the typical daily driving range, and a compact built-in generator for longer-range driving. One thing that's appealing to me about electric drivetrain is that adding more peak horsepower does NOT negatively impact efficiency with an electric vehicle -- in fact, designing a larger motor and underdriving in many cases is more efficient than pushing and underpowered electric motor at close to the limit. This means it will be possible to design cars that can provide bursts of hard acceleration, without the waste associated with large-displacement engines -- the actual ICE can be designed to supply slightly higher than the average load, rather than peak load, with the electric providing bursts of acceleration.

Also, the generator can have higher efficiency than a standard engine, as it won't be contrained by things like maximum torque, and throttle repsonse for driveability. It could be specially optimized to generating power at a specific RPM more efficiently.

Another potential problem with an entirely battery-electric systems are for places where cabin heating, defrosters, and such are needed. Waste heat to do all those things is "free" with internal combustion engines, but for someone driving in a snowy area, actual battery capacity would have to be burned up in resistors to accomplish those things. This is another area where a series hybrid (batteries that are recharged by a generator -- whose waste heat could be used to do those things) can fill in.

 

[jtr1962]

Oregon has already considered changing road tax laws to charge by the number of miles driven instead of the amount of gasoline consumed, simply because a Prius that gets 55mpg wears the road just as much as my STi that gets 20, or older vehicles which get far less.

Like I said, this actually makes sense provided they factor in weight to whatever power (I forgot the equation). The only problem is that by doing so heavy trucks will be paying 99% of road taxes because they cause 99% of the wear. A Prius or even an Escalade will be paying a pittance compared to an 18-wheeler.

I know you, JTR, don't find driving fun. But a lot of us REALLY do. Throwing a high power mid engine sports car through the twisties is the most fun I know how to have with my clothes on. Riding a train is just that, RIDING along as a passenger. It's about as exciting, to me, as eating cold mashed potato sandwiches on white bread while blindfolded.

I would certainly enjoy driving on a race track, or on highways if the speed limits were more reasonable (100 to 120 mph), and if cars didn't emit fumes which make me nauseous after a short time (this is the main reason ICE autos are worthless to me personally as a mode of transport). However, you're right, I find the concept of driving on today's roads full of incompetent drivers, ludicrously low sleep-inducing lowest common denominator speed limits, sickening fumes, heavy traffic, etc, about as exciting as nursing a stubbed toe. I had a permit a long time ago. I remember driving a friend's car at what I felt was a nice, comfortable clip. Turns out I was going between 100 and 110. Once he told me that the limit (at the time) was 55 mph, I said screw it, this isn't for me. I'll either end up in jail, or end up crashed in a ditch after falling asleep trying to drive at the limit. As for trains being boring, try riding on a TGV or even Amtrak on the Northeast Corridor with 125 mph running speeds. Sure, you're still a passenger, but I'm not one who only gets excited by those things I'm in control of. In all honesty, looking on as a passenger while the train is flying along at twice the speed of the cars on the highway next to it makes the autos look positively pathetic. Even counting stops, you get average speeds way faster than is possible driving.

I'll also add that the independence of an auto is an illusion. I'm old enough to remember the fuel crisis of the 70s. Can't get fuel for any of a number of reasons out of your control (embargos, weather, terrorism), and you're not going anywhere. However, the trains ran just fine while all this was going on. Ditto for major snowstorms. The trains run fine in weather that brings traffic to a virtual halt. I have nothing against cars really. I'm just annoyed when they're overused in places where they're really not the best means of transport (i.e. in and around large cities). In sparsely populated places they're fine. There's not enough of them to affect air quality much, traffic usually moves, and there's not enough population density for anything else anyway. Conglomerate them in large cities though and you waste valuable real estate, cause congestion, make people ill, etc.

Live in a place like I do where it can take an hour to drive 15 miles and let me know if you would still prefer a car over a train. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I'm more than a little annoyed that a mode of transport more suited to rural areas was foisted upon the city. I personally couldn't care less if internal combustion engines never become obsolete so long as they cease to be used in any vehicles operating in city limits.

I'll also add that your vehicle needs are definitely in the minority. Most people never need to go off-road, or to haul much more than groceries. If the time comes where ICEs are still needed for the 1% or less who have your unique needs, while everyone else can be served by EVs, I'll be a happy camper. I don't care if ICEs are eliminated completely, only that their numbers become small enough so that air quality isn't an issue any more. Ironically, I'd probably like ICEs more once they were relatively rare.

Yes, I love these types of discussions also.

 

[Diesel_Bomber]

I would love to have an electric truck with the range, hauling capacity, and power of my current vehicle. I am absolutely certain that will happen, I just don't think it will be soon.

Like I said, my auto independence is for a thousand miles, not forever. I fully realize that fuel is the limiting factor. But I know for sure I've got those thousand miles; no question of it at all. Drain the fuel from my other vehicles and the diesel furnace tank and the generator tank and other reserves and I've got 10x or 12x that much range. I still have to rely on someone else doing their job if I want to ride a train. I completely agree with your sentiments on dealing with idiots on the road. City driving isn't my idea of fun at all. I couldn't stand living in the city and having to deal with all those people all the time. I live out in the country and only venture into the city once a week if I can help it. I will soon be moving even farther out of town and will probably cut my trips into town down even farther. In fact, if there was enough population density to make train tracks or even a bus system worthwhile, then it'd be LONG since time for me to move farther away. I realize my opinion is the minority, and I'm glad there are so many people who don't mind the city; it keeps them away from me.

This is far OT, I'll bow out now. :buddies:

 

[jtr1962]

I still have to rely on someone else doing their job if I want to ride a train.

Along that line of sentiments I'm feeling that way lately about power generation. Since I'm dependent upon the grid, that means I have to rely on someone else doing their job in order to get electricity. In time (probably less than ten years) I plan to convert to solar, hopefully with enough energy storage to tide me over if we have a cloudy week or two. While I see your point about being dependent upon others to get from point A to point B, here it's pretty much a non-issue as I can walk or bike almost anywhere I need to go, as opposed to want to go. I find being dependent upon others for power to be potentially much more onerous as it's something I need 24/7. While I'm not predicting the obsolescence of the power grid any time soon, I do think the next big thing will be lots of power generated at the residential level, whether via solar, wind, or even geothermal. I'll also add that I'm glad you would embrace an EV truck should one be made that meets your needs. While I don't think we'll have viable energy storage for a 1000 mile range soon, I think longer term (10 to 25 years) ultracapacitors may indeed fulfill that need. Shorter term we can meet the typical 50 to 150 mile needs of the majority even now.

And that takes our OT discussion more or less back on track (no pun intended).

 

[jrmcferren]

Until about '91 we had a rotary phone in the living room that rang with real bells. The phone is now mine and I will soon have it in my dorm room as my cell phone gets very poor service while my neighbor does not have a problem. While the old phone is not a Western Electric model it is a Stomberg-Carlson using the 500 design licensed from WE. The G3 handset is comfortable to hold unlike today's blocky designs.

Enough rambling about phones, back to the flashlights.

 

[Diesel_Bomber]

I'll also add that I'm glad you would embrace an EV truck should one be made that meets your needs. While I don't think we'll have viable energy storage for a 1000 mile range soon, I think longer term (10 to 25 years) ultracapacitors may indeed fulfill that need. Shorter term we can meet the typical 50 to 150 mile needs of the majority even now.

And that takes our OT discussion more or less back on track (no pun intended).

For what it's worth(I know, I said I was done........), I don't NEED a thousand miles of range. But I do need at least 250 miles driving range and fuel for a couple hours idling while on site. It's nice to only have to fill up once (and rarely twice) a week instead of every trip. The biodiesel station is in town. :mecry:

I agree, microgeneration is the way to go. When I move farther away from town the house I build will be completely off grid.

Back to your regularly scheduled thread............:buddies:

P.S. Love the new server. I'm going to get lazy and stop c&p'ing my posts before I hit the "submit" or "preview" buttons if this awesome performance keeps up. :twothumbs

 

[PlayboyJoeShmoe]

It doesn't seem likely to me that there could ever be someting electric that could do ALL mt Ram does. If it was always empty or very lightly loaded maybe. But I tow 2.5 tons a long way fairly often and that takes all bets off.

But I'm patienly waiting to be able to get Biodiesel locally....

 

[TorchBoy]

It's about as exciting, to me, as eating cold mashed potato sandwiches on white bread while blindfolded.

Yuh-um!

Your talk of having your truck idling for a couple of hours every day is a bit of a worry. Is that all at once or little bits at a time? What sort of opportunity is there for an electric motor to remove the need for that (presumeably to keep the diesel engine warm).

 

[Diesel_Bomber]

Yuh-um!

Your talk of having your truck idling for a couple of hours every day is a bit of a worry. Is that all at once or little bits at a time? What sort of opportunity is there for an electric motor to remove the need for that (presumeably to keep the diesel engine warm).

Obviously an electric vehicle would have no need to keep the (ahem) diesel engine warm. I don't idle every night, just when necessary for the job I'm doing. The engine idles all at once, continuously. The idling truck provides electrical or air power for various tools, or hydraulic power for the winch. Sometimes I idle to maintain a heated or cooled cab or when I'll be moving the truck every two minutes anyway, but that's rare. Again, in an EV, it comes down to more battery capacity being necessary to power these items and still get me back to civilization. That's why I mentioned the idle time.

:buddies:

 

[rodfran]

I have been riding public transportation to work and back for over 20 years now. Bus pass is $10 a month.
Ten dollars wouldn't buy much fuel these days. The newer buses have ice cold air conditioning which is great for the hot Texas summers. I listen to music with headphones and read or sleep on the way to work.
The savings in fuel, car payments, maintenance, insurance,parking, and more are immense. A colleague of mine had a nice BMW he drove to work. Three accidents in three months. The last one totaled his car. It was a beautiful, blue immaculate car. A real shame.


The going to work personal ICE car is obsolete for me.


An electric bus would be nice in the future-no diesel fumes. Though the new buses do have the exhaust stacks blowing out the top.

Is there such a thing as an electric bus?

I also think an electric bike with some of those lithium titanate batteries would be cool to ride to and from the bus stop.

 

[jtr1962]

Is there such a thing as an electric bus?

Yes. It is otherwise known as a trolleybus or a trackless trolley. It gets its power from overhead wires. I'm not aware (yet) of any battery-powered bus, but given the recent leaps in battery technology I think it's only a matter of time.

NYC has been using hybrid buses as well as buses powered by compressed natural gas. The latter are nice in that they don't have much in the way of fumes. I think the hydrids still run on diesel but I'm sure converting them to CNG wouldn't entail much. Well over half the fleet is now CNG-powered. It makes a huge difference in air quality at hubs where many routes converge such as Flushing Main Street.

 

[Dynacolt]

My father continues to use an original decadic (dial) phone - when the power goes out, the cordless fails, when the cordless fried, the decadic soldiers on.

I once saw a truckload of old phones travelling to who-knows-where (I think they used to send them to India and such places).

Where have all the manual mechanical typewriters gone? there must have been millions that had disappeared over a short period of time.

Analog cell phones are the one technology that is totally redundant - an old Apple II will still operate as intended, whereas the analog cell phones are barely acceptable as a children's toy (the kids want the real deal).
What happened to the concept of "the paperless office"? with the advent of high-speed, cheap home printers, the local stationery supply store now has a 'wall of paper' - ream upon ream.

How much was spent from the early '70s on developing a video phone for the average home? Some of that research would have contributed to the current video capabilities of cell phone and IP technologies, but much of it would no doubt have been dumped once those technologies arrived.

I agree with PhotonWrangler, CRT is still the best medium for images (and afaik, analog TV transmission has greater colour and luminance depth and breadth)- and what others say is true: much 'new technology' is progress, but not necessarily advancement or improvement, merely dressed up as such.

Microwave ovens haven't replaced conventional, convection ovens.
Washing machines continue to be glossy new versions of the original in general design.

Much technology is based on incremental change, or improvement by putting a "microchip brain" inside, and the original designs still hold up to scrutiny and operate as intended (and tended to be built to last, rather than have a short lifespan, at which time it's expected one will upgrade, replace, renew, purchase, consume).

Whatever happened to "fuzzy logic"? Wasn't that just a digital attempt to replicate an original analog function?

Just my 65.3 cents worth.

Dave.

 

[chimo]

This is a very good, thought-provoking thread. :thumbsup: