RCS1300
Flashlight Enthusiast
Henry, enjoyed reading your position paper from the HDS website - "A Pragmatic Perspective on COVID-19"
A couple of thoughts:
Some antibody testing results suggested that 25% of people in NYC had COVID-19 and 13% of people in rural New York State had the virus. Let's make a crazy assumption that 15% of the US population (330 million) has had COVID-19 as of July 15, 2020. That is 49.5 million people. If death from COVID-19 is 138,000 so far, the death rate is approximately .3%. That means that 99.7% of the people that contract COVID-19 will not die from it. If half the population will be exposed the total deaths will be less than 500,000 people.
Our health experts really blew it by not recommending from the start that all people wear surgical masks to prevent the spread by asymptomatic people. Lastly, forget the concept of contact tracing especially in major cities where it costs money to get tested. No one is going to turn in their friends and relatives to make them spend between $250 and $1,800 to get tested.
Hospitals and people have been able to learn, practice, and prepare for COVID-19 for four months now - 1/2 March, April, May, June, 1/2 July. Time to fully open the economy and have everyone wear masks that cannot social distance.
A couple of thoughts:
Some antibody testing results suggested that 25% of people in NYC had COVID-19 and 13% of people in rural New York State had the virus. Let's make a crazy assumption that 15% of the US population (330 million) has had COVID-19 as of July 15, 2020. That is 49.5 million people. If death from COVID-19 is 138,000 so far, the death rate is approximately .3%. That means that 99.7% of the people that contract COVID-19 will not die from it. If half the population will be exposed the total deaths will be less than 500,000 people.
Our health experts really blew it by not recommending from the start that all people wear surgical masks to prevent the spread by asymptomatic people. Lastly, forget the concept of contact tracing especially in major cities where it costs money to get tested. No one is going to turn in their friends and relatives to make them spend between $250 and $1,800 to get tested.
Hospitals and people have been able to learn, practice, and prepare for COVID-19 for four months now - 1/2 March, April, May, June, 1/2 July. Time to fully open the economy and have everyone wear masks that cannot social distance.
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