' Pope warns of "demographic winter," urges action to boost birth rates '

[Vesper]

Bingo! If you're a person like me, the chances of meeting someone similar if you don't meet them in college are virtually nil. Hence the reason I've been single all my life. Don't even really meet people I'd want to date, never mind more than that.

Not an attack at you, but this sounds like an excuse someone tells themselves to stay in their comfort zone, even if they don't really like it there. The saying that attitude is 90% of the battle applies in most places.

 

[jtr1962]

Not an attack at you, but this sounds like an excuse someone tells themselves to stay in their comfort zone, even if they don't really like it there. The saying that attitude is 90% of the battle applies in most places.

Not an excuse. I literally just don't meet anyone I'm interested in. Believe me, I'd jump at the chance if I did. I'm also great at enjoying my own company. I'd rather be alone than with someone I'm less than thrilled to be with. Over half of marriages fail because people settle, instead of holding out for something better. It happened to my parents. They never divorced but their marriage was almost 45 years of constant fighting. It happened to my sister. She did divorce after 18+ years.

 

[turbodog]

...

Ideally, those with ability should have the best educational option open to them regardless of ability to pay. That's simply a nation maximizing its intellectual assets. All benefit from this.
...

Careful there... my brother never made it through college w/ a degree (worth anything). He now has a successful business in South Alabama worth north of couple hundred mill, employing a LOT of people. To date, he probably couldn't solve a single variable linear equation.

 

[fuyume]

living in NYC I wouldn't have a car even if I was rich. You don't really need one here.

Haha, speak for yourself. My family is from College Point, and it takes forever to even get to Flushing on the bus.

 

[fuyume]

I think that, rather than reading the obviously biased MSN article about Cat's TikTok video, people should actually watch the video, because everything she is saying is 100% true, and has been grossly mischaracterized by MSN and others.

What is undeniably true is, no matter how hard Boomers think they may have had it in the 1960s, our society began to experience dramatic changes during the 1970s that only accelerated during the 1980s. I'm solidly Gen X, so I'm old enough to remember and young enough to understand. Boomers really have no idea what life is like for younger generations, because the world was fundamentally different when they were in their 20s, and by the time things changed, they were solidly middle-aged and established.

Take a look at any chart of productivity gains versus real wages, and you will see that although productivity has skyrocketed since the mid-1970s, real wages have remained essentially flat. The rise of the financial industry supplanting manufacturing as the primary driver of the economy began in the 1980s and continued through the 1990s, and is the primary factor that has exponentially increased the costs of housing, healthcare, and education. It is becoming more and more normal for people to spend upwards of 50% of their income just on housing costs, alone, and over 35 million Americans have no healthcare coverage, at all. Education debt and consumer credit debt are each over $1 Trillion USD, threatening to swamp the entire system. Education debt is actually about $1.8 Trillion USD, and steadily rising.

Couple that with the extreme price gouging that was enabled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the dramatic surge in energy prices that was enabled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and things are looking really grim out there, right now, worse than the 2008 recession, worse than the early 1990s recession, worse than the late 1970s-early 1980s recession, worse than at any time since the Great Depression.

 

[bykfixer]

I think that, rather than reading the obviously biased MSN article about Cat's TikTok video, people should actually watch the video, because everything she is saying is 100% true, and has been grossly mischaracterized by MSN and others.

What is undeniably true is, no matter how hard Boomers think they may have had it in the 1960s, our society began to experience dramatic changes during the 1970s that only accelerated during the 1980s. I'm solidly Gen X, so I'm old enough to remember and young enough to understand. Boomers really have no idea what life is like for younger generations, because the world was fundamentally different when they were in their 20s, and by the time things changed, they were solidly middle-aged and established.

Take a look at any chart of productivity gains versus real wages, and you will see that although productivity has skyrocketed since the mid-1970s, real wages have remained essentially flat. The rise of the financial industry supplanting manufacturing as the primary driver of the economy began in the 1980s and continued through the 1990s, and is the primary factor that has exponentially increased the costs of housing, healthcare, and education. It is becoming more and more normal for people to spend upwards of 50% of their income just on housing costs, alone, and over 35 million Americans have no healthcare coverage, at all. Education debt and consumer credit debt are each over $1 Trillion USD, threatening to swamp the entire system. Education debt is actually about $1.8 Trillion USD, and steadily rising.

Couple that with the extreme price gouging that was enabled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the dramatic surge in energy prices that was enabled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and things are looking really grim out there, right now, worse than the 2008 recession, worse than the early 1990s recession, worse than the late 1970s-early 1980s recession, worse than at any time since the Great Depression.

I'm at the furthest tip of the boomer generation. Born shortly before the so called Gen-X began. So most of my view is from both points. My parents spent their youth during the Great Depression. (They had me in their mid-30's). So I also saw things through stories of life at that point. Raising kids and now training the next generation some call millenisls at my job I see life from their perspective too.

In a lot of ways things are tougher for the younsters today. Yet in a lot of ways they have it better too. During covid for example one of my young trainees was freaking out when his favorite restaraunt and gym closed. Yet another young trainee said the boy should find the cost benefit in cooking at home and working out in his living room. Now the guy complaining always whined about never having enough money. The other fellow actually made a lower wage but had figured out how to maximize his resources.

On the other hand my former boss, a boomer was freaking out that his barber was shut down during covid. The idea of cutting his own hair was foreign to him in his twighlight years. And cook at home? Why do that when door dash will bring it to you? Now he grew up at a time when the flu killed people on a regular basis. He once was barely able to afford a house despite having 3 jobs in the 1960's. So that is nothing new.

I think the biggest obstacle facing the young today is partly lack of know how, partly lack of opportunity. Through automation and jobs going overseas the job market is pretty sketchy anymore. But when schools lower the standards so no child gets left behind and all are required to pass a gubment required knowledge test, the youth no longer learn critical skills like reasoning, or dealing with adversity. Combine that with a safety net not available during my parents youth is now a hammock, it's no wonder things are like they are.

In my 30's at a technical school I took an entrance test and did not score well on the grammer portion. The instructor offered to give me a watered down version saying my dislexia was the issue. I declined. She asked why I did not want to receive a better score. I replied "in life I don't get to ask for the handicap version". I took a computer drawing class and passed with a 96. To obtain that grade I had to stay after class each night, work with the instructor on Saturday and work with other students while not at our job(s). I did not own a computer at the time. I've not used anything I learned in that class at my job by the way.

 

[Falcon9h]

.. the boomers lived through stagflation, oil crisis, 1970's cars, and finding out Liberace was gay.

Ha-ha! You left out the DC-10! 😳

 

[turbodog]

...

things are looking really grim out there, right now, worse than the 2008 recession, worse than the early 1990s recession, worse than the late 1970s-early 1980s recession, worse than at any time since the Great Depression.

That's some bull.

Credit is still readily available (unlike 2007/2008).

Jobs are plentiful, employers practically begging for people.

Min wage has moved up drastically in practice.

We don't have to worry about a global financial collapse (2007/08).

Consumer demand is strong.

There's an UNDERsupply of housing, which is the primary driver of housing prices, driven by a shortage from the 2007 pullback.

We are seeing
1) some normal economic cycles in housing
2) China's mfg still being depressed
3) supply chain issues created by c-19
4) inflation caused by very real increase in costs (remember when trans-oceanic container prices went from 2k to 20k?)
5) major demographic change in workforce due to

a) c-19 deaths to the tune of 1% of the US population
b) boomer retirement wave
c) US being short of legal immigrants to the tune of 2-3M
d) long covid sufferers
e) an exodus from the workforce of part time workers (typically older spouses that work to have something to do) due to c-19

 

[Toulouse42]

I can only speak from my own experience but if youngsters stayed off social media and did a job of work, they might find life easier.

See Daily Mail Article - 12100861/Disturbing-TikTok-trend-sees-group-young-men-storm-random-peoples-houses

 

[idleprocess]

There's an UNDERsupply of housing, which is the primary driver of housing prices, driven by a shortage from the 2007 pullback.

Aye. although I'm not sure the present political economy will support changing this status quo - at least no openly. There are innumerous obstacles to adapting the great wide swaths of single detached residential tracts ringfenced by single-use zoning and shackled by development rules that makes it effectively impossible to legally subdivide the properties (or structures themselves) into the subunits the market demands. Thus the price of housing goes up year after year.

I'm watching an adjacent, more affluent 'burb undergo an identity crisis over the issue of density. Vast tracts of the city (I'd guess around half) are current and former ranchland waiting for those sweet offers from real estate developers, that once in a lifetime deal that catapults the family from middle class to upper class in a single transaction. The problem, the flaw in the diamond, the fly in the ointment is that the market for the >3,000ft² (~280m²) homes on >¼ acre (~0.10 ha) that the city desperately wishes to continue building has priced itself out of reach of prospective residents, thus hated multifamily properties are what's being proposed. It was an issue in the municipal elections with a number of anti-density candidates on the ballot; they may score some tactical victories but I expect economic forces will eventually prevail and the city will be forced to accept luxury apartments and condos as the cultural hologram of the white picket fence recedes.

There's also an unspoken reality of affordable housing: it's never new. Sure, a banner .gov initiative might get some fraction of the units in a high-publicity build in the likes of NYC committed to being nominally "affordable" but that's never enough units to make a dent in the market. The actual reality of affordable housing is that it's new housing many decades later. All new-build apartment buildings are "luxury apartments" which over the decades may become mid-market and finally budget apartments as they age. In single detached suburbia the starter home is all but extinct in new construction - zoning regulations have mandated it out of existence - thus the role has been delegated to the handfuls of older/smaller homes that have escaped rapid price inflation. And a lot of ... disallowed ... adaptation happens in the poorer parts of town that local government doesn't much care about - informal duplexes/triplexes, large sheds converted into ADUs, RVs semi-permanently parked in backyards with umbilicals to the main structure, etc.

 

[orbital]

+

Everything was just easier when the World was flat.
the Explanation of Emblems is a must see..

 

[bykfixer]

Aye. although I'm not sure the present political economy will support changing this status quo - at least no openly. There are innumerous obstacles to adapting the great wide swaths of single detached residential tracts ringfenced by single-use zoning and shackled by development rules that makes it effectively impossible to legally subdivide the properties (or structures themselves) into the subunits the market demands. Thus the price of housing goes up year after year.

I'm watching an adjacent, more affluent 'burb undergo an identity crisis over the issue of density. Vast tracts of the city (I'd guess around half) are current and former ranchland waiting for those sweet offers from real estate developers, that once in a lifetime deal that catapults the family from middle class to upper class in a single transaction. The problem, the flaw in the diamond, the fly in the ointment is that the market for the >3,000ft² (~280m²) homes on >¼ acre (~0.10 ha) that the city desperately wishes to continue building has priced itself out of reach of prospective residents, thus hated multifamily properties are what's being proposed. It was an issue in the municipal elections with a number of anti-density candidates on the ballot; they may score some tactical victories but I expect economic forces will eventually prevail and the city will be forced to accept luxury apartments and condos as the cultural hologram of the white picket fence recedes.

There's also an unspoken reality of affordable housing: it's never new. Sure, a banner .gov initiative might get some fraction of the units in a high-publicity build in the likes of NYC committed to being nominally "affordable" but that's never enough units to make a dent in the market. The actual reality of affordable housing is that it's new housing many decades later. All new-build apartment buildings are "luxury apartments" which over the decades may become mid-market and finally budget apartments as they age. In single detached suburbia the starter home is all but extinct in new construction - zoning regulations have mandated it out of existence - thus the role has been delegated to the handfuls of older/smaller homes that have escaped rapid price inflation. And a lot of ... disallowed ... adaptation happens in the poorer parts of town that local government doesn't much care about - informal duplexes/triplexes, large sheds converted into ADUs, RVs semi-permanently parked in backyards with umbilicals to the main structure, etc.

Well said IP
It's all by design.... in the long term 'let's make communism law of the land' aspect it is working beautifully. Slowly the frog in the pond of heated water does not realize just how warm the water has become. The young frogs are trying to say to the old frogs "guys this aint working" but their voices are being drowned out by things like a beer promotion for a guy who dresses like a girl and that and orange man is Hitler. Meanwhile this so-called Pope fellow hasn't exactly followed the dictates of his holy instruction manual either.

 

[alpg88]

I live in NYC, in general you could live here and not have a car, there is plenty of city transportation. but i'd rather drive anyway. sick of train delays, sudden service changes, switch and signal problems everyday, and seats with some urine, and bed bugs, and crazy homeless, also busses are using the same roads, if there is a traffic, the bus will be stock as much as anyone on that road. I have a car, also have 2 bikes. i had a scooter 2000w, planned to ride it to work, but the range turned out too short for my trip. now i'm thinking of throwing a mid drive on one of my bikes, and ride it to work, but i will stay away from city transportation unless it is absolutely necessary and there is absolutely no other way.

 

[idleprocess]

It's all by design.... in the long term 'let's make communism law of the land' aspect it is working beautifully.

Eh ... simpler explanation is that what we're seeing is a layer cake of capitalism, NIMBY-ism, cultural tropes, and a number of legalisms a good century in the making; the outcomes are simply the discovered local minima that echo across the nation due to extremely high overlap. Restrict supply - via whatever mechanism(s) - and prices go up. One could argue for the existence of an oligarchy (an unusually large and distributed one) of real estate developers and landlords pulling the levers in their favor ... which they are, but I think they're simply acting to advance a common interest and but one piece of the puzzle.

 

[Duster1671]

Yet humanity marches onward, delivering increases in quality of life for all.

Bolded part is dubious...

 

[turbodog]

Bolded part is dubious...

Can you not send a letter coast to coast for less than a dollar?

Can you not call, text, surf, email, voice chat, etc unlimited in the CONUS for ~$40/month?

Goods/services get cheaper, better, and faster over time.

Practically unlimited info/entertainment between wikipedia/youtube.

Unlimited learning via Khan Academy/etc.

Less discrimination than in prior years for minorities, gay, etc. More legal protections for same.

Infant mortality dropping*. Maternal mortality dropping*. Poverty dropping*. Crime dropping*. These are local, state, nationally, and worldwide trends.




*Red states excluded.

 

[Duster1671]

@turbodog - I think it's fair to say QOL has improved for many (even most) people. But there are still huge segments of the global population for whom the examples you cited are pretty irrelevant. Cheap internet and a wonderful postal service don't mean a whole lot to a person who hasn't eaten in three days and doesn't know where their next meal will come from.

Many goods and services may be cheaper now than in the past, but we've also lost a lot of the sense of community and collective responsibility that cared for the less fortunate.

I think I agree with the general notion that QOL has massively improved over time, but it's a pretty complicated subject.

 

[alpg88]

Can you not send a letter coast to coast for less than a dollar?\

You can in usa, but does this fact alone make anyone's life better life?? absolutely not, nor it is relavant to anyone outside usa.

Can you not call, text, surf, email, voice chat, etc unlimited in the CONUS for ~$40/month?

Yea, but it matters to no one outside usa, you do know there are other countries outside of usa, dont' you.

Goods/services get cheaper, better, and faster over time.

That is generally a fallacy, they do not get cheaper nor better

Practically unlimited info/entertainment between wikipedia/youtube.

that is rubbish, both practice censorship and bend to political agenda of a side that controls them. so no, unlimited info is what you do not get, it is limited to only what their guidelines allow,.

Unlimited learning via Khan Academy/etc.

Lol where? i'm sure there are many online learnings, none of them really matter.

Less discrimination than in prior years for minorities, gay, etc. More legal protections for same.

That is outright garbage if anything there is more discrimination now than 20 years ago, we even went far enough to create special classes, that do discriminate and protected by gvmnt while doing so,

Infant mortality dropping*. Maternal mortality dropping*. Poverty dropping*. Crime dropping*. These are local, state, nationally, and worldwide trends.

Please, go check mortality ratings in 3rd world courtiers, it has not changed much from 50 years ago

*Red states excluded.

That is a great example of divisiveness that is wired into your brain, and you believe the word is better now? LMAO. what a joke,.

 

[bykfixer]

Yeah, those blue states are doing so well......

 

[alpg88]

you mean those blue states the people are running from to red states by hundreds of thousands?? , lol, yea they are doing great, crime is up, and so are the prices, you can't even ask school what they teach to your kids, if you do, fbi sees you as domestic terrorist, and DOE send CPS to your home. but you can send a letter across usa for under a buck, isn't it wonderful, who cares about crime, economy, and destabilized social structure. unlimited YouTube entertainment is all that matters, lmao.