What Will The Future Bring?

[Frankiarmz]

I've only been involved with flashlights for just over one year, my first being a Scorpion. My next flashlight was a AAA Twin Task and soon I was into Olight T-20's. I may be wrong but it seems as though the variety of offerings and technology has exploded in recent months. What do you "Flashoholics" see for the future of LED's, beyond the mid 200 lumen range? Can the technology improve sufficiently beyond what we are currently seeing? Thanks.

 

[HKJ]

The P7 led is the next step for high power flashlights, it can handle 700+ lumens, depending on battery power and cooling. I.e. it needs rechargables or more than two CR123A batteries.

In a few years the flashlights will be better at showing colors and the leds will have improved efficiency, i.e. the 200+ lumens of today will probably be 400+ lumens.

 

[MikeSalt]

LED manufacturers need to take a little step back from the efficiency war and try to broaden the spectrum. Natural white needs some work in the LED domain.

 

[BabyDoc]

LED manufacturers need to take a little step back from the efficiency war and try to broaden the spectrum. Natural white needs some work in the LED domain.

+1!

 

[Centropolis]

I am sure the LED technological advances in the next 5 years will be significant. Just like computer CPUs….they'll become brighter with less power and longer runtimes. It'll make my L1, 6PL, G2L, E1B obsolete. The CREE S7 LED in a Fenix L1H will put out 1000 lumens with one AA battery that runs for an hour on max.

Something like that…….

 

[kramer5150]

More Lumens and less current consumption... Higher efficiency. Imagine getting 200 Lumens from 100mAh current draw, or 100L from 50mAh, WOW that would be a dream come true. I wonder if you would even need a driver board with such low current?, just a direct drive resistor and a NiMH cell.

I really like what Nichia is doing with their LEDs.... more of that will hopefully spread across the industry.

Its too bad Lumileds had the 0100 bin rebel fall-out late last year. I really like the color tint of their LEDs. I think they are still suffering the ill-effects as everyone is now going to Cree.

 

[Outdoors Fanatic]

More Lumens and less current consumption... Higher efficiency. Imagine getting 200 Lumens from 100mAh current draw, or 100L from 50mAh, WOW that would be a dream come true. I wonder if you would even need a driver board with such low current?, just a direct drive resistor and a NiMH cell.

I really like what Nichia is doing with their LEDs.... more of that will hopefully spread across the industry.

Its too bad Lumileds had the 0100 bin rebel fall-out late last year. I really like the color tint of their LEDs. I think they are still suffering the ill-effects as everyone is now going to Cree.

Did Fenix stop manufacturing lights with the Rebel emitter?

 

[BabyDoc]

Did Fenix stop manufacturing lights with the Rebel emitter?

Yes, although there are still some available at some of the fenix dealers. (see lighteninghound.com) It is my understanding that the Rebel emitter is currently unavailable from the LED manufacturer who is correcting some quality control issues.

 

[russtang]

Whatever it brings, it sure is fun to be right in the middle of all this

technological advancement.

 

[nerdgineer]

The Chinese lights will cost about 50% more in 3-4 years due to devaluation of the dollar vs. the RMB (Chinese dollar)...

 

[TONY M]

I am having soooo much fun with what we have now with LED technology. 5 years ago we were nowhere really but we knew that LEDs would be the future when a few things got sorted out and then it did, it happened very quickly aswell.

There could be a very important development in the near future that comes along allowing us to throw away our current crop of high output crees. You never know.

As far as flashlights are considered in my mind LEDs are now king (except for very high output lights).

LED's that come in any colour temperature specified could be around the corner. That would be an important one I feel.

I think that over the next few years reaching 1000 lumens per watt is a mark to hit. That coupled with batteries far superior to what we have now is a killer combination. Battery technology is also very important too.

What we have right now is great. As we all know very well most unlightened people still believe that a minimag running on duracell alkalines is the holy grail :candle: (and will probably feel that way for some time). A good $20 DX light puts that to shame.

A 500 lumen AAA EDC that can run for 2 or more hours would be insane and there really WOULD be a need for a low mode!


Whatever happens, the future is BRIGHT! :huh:

 

[Frankiarmz]

I am having soooo much fun with what we have now with LED technology. 5 years ago we were nowhere really but we knew that LEDs would be the future when a few things got sorted out and then it did, it happened very quickly aswell.

There could be a very important development in the near future that comes along allowing us to throw away our current crop of high output crees. You never know.

As far as flashlights are considered in my mind LEDs are now king (except for very high output lights).

LED's that come in any colour temperature specified could be around the corner. That would be an important one I feel.

I think that over the next few years reaching 1000 lumens per watt is a mark to hit. That coupled with batteries far superior to what we have now is a killer combination. Battery technology is also very important too.

What we have right now is great. As we all know very well most unlightened people still believe that a minimag running on duracell alkalines is the holy grail :candle: (and will probably feel that way for some time). A good $20 DX light puts that to shame.

A 500 lumen AAA EDC that can run for 2 or more hours would be insane and there really WOULD be a need for a low mode!


Whatever happens, the future is BRIGHT! :huh:

I agree with your post and many of the points made in the previous posts predicting the future of flashlights. I see the recent advancements as amazing and hard to surpass right now and yet it makes sense that the next two or three years will see your predictions easily come true. When I think of my first MiniMag or even my somewhat recent Scorpion and how impressed I was, I get a big grin considering the future. I think batteries will need to advance more than LED's to accomplish some of these goals. No doubt that china will grow stronger in their technological offerings due to our desire for these products and willingness to pay for them. We are living in very changing times.

 

[Hooked on Fenix]

In the future, I hope to see a light about the size of a Fenix P3D that has a working voltage range from .9 to 10 volts. This is so you can use different lego body tubes to adapt it to whatever size or number of batteries you want (1AA, 2AA, 123A, 2 123A, 17670s, or 1 or 2 18650s). It will have a forward clickie switch and an optional switch with strobes and SOS as well. The light will have two selector rings on it. One for variable intensity brightness control and the other for color of light (red, blue, green, amber, U.V., and I.R.). Another setting on the optional switch will be to adjust the tint of the white l.e.d., otherwise it will be neutral white. Basically, you should be able to adjust battery type, brightness, l.e.d. color, tint, and other settings quickly and easily. It will also have to be as bright as a million candlepower spotlight (400-600 lumens) and fit in my pocket. I think this will be possible if we can get to about 200 lumens/watt, get a wider voltage range on drivers, get better color rendition in l.e.d.s, and have a company to make it that isn't afraid of making the only flashlight you should ever need. Knowing how companies are, they'll probably hold something back that you want so you'll buy their next light.
Also, I predict that l.e.d. companies will stop pushing the limits of lumens/watt and focus on color rendition to break into the house lighting and car headlight markets. I also think we are in for a price increase for flashlights and batteries. China is becoming a growing industrial nation that will start paying better wages sooner or later. When the Chinese can afford to buy the good lights they make, demand will increase along with prices. Material costs will go up too making our hobby more expensive. I hope I'm wrong about this, but it seems we've had it too good in the last few years. Rechargeable batteries have more than quadrupled from early Ni-CD to current NiMH and Li-Ion batteries and l.e.d. efficiency has increased about the same too. Costs of these batteries and l.e.d.s have mostly dropped over the years as well. I know that as soon as l.e.d.s become a viable option to replace fluorescents, fluorescents will be outlawed here in California whether l.e.d.s are cheap or not. There's too much environmentalist control in California and they already outlawed using mercury in electronics. You can't make fluorescent bulbs without mercury. We may eventually see costs come down a lot on l.e.d.s when they become commonplace in household lighting.

 

[RGB_LED]

I would agree that I would like to see better tonal rendition and broader contrast range with new LED emitters... there's some improvement with the Rebel's and even some of the warmer Cree bins but LED's have a long way to go still.

Also, what about batteries... I know this is a segue and this is the 'LED Flashlights' forum and not the 'Batteries' forum but what about advances in batteries as well?

There will come a point where LED efficiency is maximized and the real bottle-neck may point back to the need to improve the battery. I would like to see an AA battery with improved efficiency with 10,000mAh (ok, maybe 5,000mAh) driving an LED that is capable of 1000 lumens. Or better still, perhaps eliminating the venting issues and improving the stability of Li-Ion batteries.

 

[Frankiarmz]

I would agree that I would like to see better tonal rendition and broader contrast range with new LED emitters... there's some improvement with the Rebel's and even some of the warmer Cree bins but LED's have a long way to go still.

Also, what about batteries... I know this is a segue and this is the 'LED Flashlights' forum and not the 'Batteries' forum but what about advances in batteries as well?

There will come a point where LED efficiency is maximized and the real bottle-neck may point back to the need to improve the battery. I would like to see an AA battery with improved efficiency with 10,000mAh (ok, maybe 5,000mAh) driving an LED that is capable of 1000 lumens. Or better still, perhaps eliminating the venting issues and improving the stability of Li-Ion batteries.

I think the discussion of batteries is equally important to LED advancement. Why should a AA, 10,000 mAH be out of reach? I'm sure as we discuss the possibilities there are researchers and inventors working with all sorts of materials to make these batteries of the future a reality. Will it depend on something like Nano technology and what will the cost be? I don't want to sound like an isolationist and I hope living conditions improve around the world, but I would imagine that we are the major consumers of these LED products and if prices do increase due to our weakening dollar and rising costs in manufacturing who will buy these products if we don't ? I don't see how we can continue to be consumers for the world's products if we have to keep paying double digit price increases for essentials.:shrug:

 

[Jarl]

I hope for an EDC that will give 1, 10, 100, 350 and 1000 lumens with an adjustable focus from crazy spot to pure flood, and a good CRI and colour temperature.

I also hope for high capacity, stable lithium batteries. I don't like the idea of it exploding, much...

 

[copperfox]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but 1000lm/w is far above the physical limit of converting energy into light. It's kind of like wishing for a gasoline internal combustion engine that makes 600hp per liter --it ain't gonna happen.

I anticipate that LEDs will hit a ceiling of efficiency after a while, but I can't predict when that will be. I would guess it will be around 200lm/w. I look forward to energy storage improvements, perhaps utilizing carbon nanotubes in a safe chemistry. It sure would be nice to have an AA-sized cell with 25Ah capacity!

Unfortunately, one hurdle bleeding-edge flashlights will always face is sufficient heat-sinking. The laws of physics won't change, so we're limited to using silver, copper, gold, and aluminum for our heat-sinks. Perhaps somebody will begin to integrate heat pipes and piezoelectric devices into flashlights to assist with cooling...

 

[Sir Lightalot]

I think that over the next few years reaching 1000 lumens per watt is a mark to hit.

Theoretically full spectrum white can only be 242.5 lumens per watt. see all those "finally! 300 lumens per watt" threads

 

[Frankiarmz]

Theoretically full spectrum white can only be 242.5 lumens per watt. see all those "finally! 300 lumens per watt" threads

"This means that typical white (or whitish) light sources produce far fewer lumens per watt than the theoretical maximum of 683 lumens per watt. The ratio between the actual number of lumens per watt and the theoretical maximum is expressed as a percentage known as the luminous efficiency. For example, a typical incandescent light bulb has a luminous efficiency of only about 2%."
The above is a quote and while it refers to your theory it makes me wonder if this theory will be proven wrong someday? Who is to say someone will not invent a new material or process with which to accomplish higher outputs of white light per watt? When I was in high school many years ago "Absolute Zero" had not been reached and when I recently researched the subject it was still unattainable, but someday?

 

[David Gretzmier]

LED lumen efficiency will continue to increase, and as lumens go up, heat management will have to be better. battery technology will also continue to evolve , with more mah coming from both the nimh camp and lithium ion. both of these will combine to give lots more runtime and more lumens from smaller lights. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new battery technology in 5 years or so, something with either more mah per ounce or more voltage or both. better reflectors will bring more of the lumens out the front.

I'm not sure how fast this will happen, looking at the cree and the AA battery- the q5 was available in flashlights around Halloween last year, and 6 months later the r2 is pretty much where we are at. nimh AA's topped out at 2500mah in October as I remember, and I've seen 2700mah the past month or so. so a jump of 10-15% in lumen eficiency and 5-10% increase in battery power per year may seem reasonable.