Electric & Alt Fuel Vehicles, Part 3

[twentysixtwo]

Steve, Shale oil is being mined as we speak. Has been for the past few years. I think the article was in Wired, about a year ago. The technology to extract it has improved signiicantly, and the breakeven was somewhere north of $40 a barrel.

There's also a growing theory in the geological community that oil reserves are not as limited as we may think - that is, that oil is not from fossilized forests and dinosaurs, but some unknown geological process.

That said, oil is still a dirty, expensive, way to go, with all sorts of other political, etc implications. There is also the question as to how quickly it regenerates if, in fact, it does. Oil may or may not be a near-limitless resource, but clearly our ability to get it as fast as we use it is not.

 

[gadget_lover]

Part of the problem we face today is that we've become better at getting to the oil.

In 1970 I was buying gas for $0.25 per gallon. We were very concerned that by the end of the century (2005? 2010?? I forget the exact prediction) we'd be out of oil. Environmentalists were calling for conservation. Then, as now, there were people saying that if the price of gas goes up, they could revive oil wells that were not profitable. They could extract oil from other sources if the prices went high enough. Nobody imagined paying up to a dollar and a half per gallon of regular.

So prices did go up. The oil companies have gotten very good at locating oil. The techiques for squeezing the last drop out of a well have become very effective. The average car's MPG has actually gone up, but they've gotten cleaner at the same time.

If shale oil is economically feasible when gas is $4.00 per gallon, you can rest assured that at some time we'll be paying that for gas.

Yes, it's a shame that we could stretch the supplies we have by improving car designs. We still need oil for so many other things, but that's another story.

We have a wind farm not far from here. It almost went out of business because of the expense of maintenance. An enterprising person bought all the used windmill equipment he could and has been rebuilding them. Last I heard he's making a profit.

Daniel

 

[Darell]

[ QUOTE ]
twentysixtwo said:
Steve, Shale oil is being mined as we speak. Has been for the past few years. I think the article was in Wired, about a year ago. The technology to extract it has improved signiicantly, and the breakeven was somewhere north of $40 a barrel.

[/ QUOTE ]
While the money aspect is of course important, the amount of energy needed to extract and make a uesful product is even more significant. When we started pulling oil from the ground it was damn-near a windfall. We were getting something like 300 oil units of energy out for each unit of energy we put into securing it. But that was the 30's... Today it is on the order of seven units of energy out for each unit of energy we put in. See the problem? Once we reach parity - or even close to it - there is NO reason to pull oil out. I've heard all kinds of talk of shale extraction, but as for having the actual technology to do it at reasonable cost of money and energy? That would be news to me.

[ QUOTE ]
There's also a growing theory in the geological community that oil reserves are not as limited as we may think - that is, that oil is not from fossilized forests and dinosaurs, but some unknown geological process.

[/ QUOTE ]
Either way, we're using it WAY faster than we've finding it. We "think" oil is limited because we're finding less of it with more looking. If there's more out there than we "think" but can't find it, I'm not sure where that leaves us.

[ QUOTE ]
Oil may or may not be a near-limitless resource, but clearly our ability to get it as fast as we use it is not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that's the overriding factor, I guess.

 

[gadget_lover]

What's the latest on the EV1 front?


Good news in general; I watch for hybrids. I have not gone anywhere in the last month without seeing at least one hybrid. On a typical 4 mile drive around town I see 3 (plus my own).

The most impressive day so far; I saw 13 hybrids in one day. The fact that I drove to Stanford University that day probably helped, but I saw 6 in my town that day.

This is a dramatic change from 3 years ago when I saw one a month. Things are looking better.

Daniel

 

[Darell]

[ QUOTE ]
gadget_lover said:
The techiques for squeezing the last drop out of a well have become very effective. The average car's MPG has actually gone up, but they've gotten cleaner at the same time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm a bit concerned to hear this being presented as fact.

The average well leaves at LEAST 50% of the oil behind. Used to leave 75% behind, but now 50% is considered bone dry. Far too much energy needed to extract the last half. As for the avearge MPG of today's vehicles... The Energy Policy Conservation Act (EPCA) was made law by Congress in 1975, and established Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for passenger cars and light trucks (note - this does not include most full-size SUVs!). The Act was passed in response to the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo. The goal was to double new car fuel economy by model year 1985. Know where we are today? Lower than in 1975. We're hovering somewhere in the 21-22mph average today. Missed in the calculations that I'm sure somebody will dig up to prove me wrong, is the vehicles that don't count for this number. The huge vehicles that weigh too much to count against the CAFE standards. The vehicles that are subsidized by the federal goverment - the full-size SUVs that gross more than 6,000 pounds. In 1975, nobody was driving huge SUVs or pickups as passenger vehicles. Today, almost half of us are driving some sort of truck as our personal transportation. "Cars" have certainly gotten better (at least in relation to power) but not all vehicles that we drive today compared to all vehicles that we drove yesterday.

 

[Darell]

[ QUOTE ]
gadget_lover said:
What's the latest on the EV1 front?

[/ QUOTE ]
Geez... what was the last thing I posted? It was a flurry of activity yesterday. I didn't get anything done. You're sure to see *something* about this on the news now that *acresses in distress* were arrested. /ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif We're down to about 50 EV1s on the lot now, and GM promises to remove the rest this week. No news since yesterday. I'll post anything important that comes up. Anybody dig up the AP photos of the arrest yet?

Uh-oh. We're over the 200 post limit again... right Brock!? Brock is our official post counter.

 

[Darell]

Brock rudely locked this thing without so much as a pointer to the new thread, or a love note for those of us waiting for a response on this thread.

Please see Part 4 of this thread.

Love, Brock.