Remember over there wages are 1/5 what it is over here. I was told by a visitor that food and rent is about the same as here. Which leaves very little money for discretionary spending.
So cost is a major factor. The most common format is still VCD and BOOTLEG DVD which at $1-$2 is still cheaper than cbhd.
One of the reasons for those annoying region codes on DVD and Blue Ray is so the Studios can license a disc for USD $30 here and for Yaun 30 over there. To prevent the Chinese copies from being reimported cheap over here the discs sold over there has a different region code and won't play in North America. Unless you hack your DVD player.
With licensing cbhd over there and Blu Ray over here you can not hack your Blue Ray player to play illegal cbhd discs over here. Makes it a lot easier to identify and prosecute illegal imports too.
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Do not be so sure 'flash' distribution won't be copy protected. It will probably come in ROM - read only memory. The early Radio Shack Color Computer programmers found an easy way to protect their game cartridges. Every so often they added code to write gibberish all over the program. In the ROM cartridge nothing happens - it is read only not read write. But if you are trying to run the program in memory or off floppy the gibberish writing would make the program destroy itself and be unusable.
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iTunes downloaded a copy of Mamma Mia The Movie instead of taking the digital copy from the DVD.
Did not like the iTunes player so I copied it on to the Desktop to use Quicktime Movie Player. Guess what?
The biggest limiting factor for BluRay as a media format is it's excessive content protection. Unless the content protection is revised to make it more compatible with a broad range of systems, I see internet distribution or flash overtaking it within 5 years or so.
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The movie studios are spending ridiculous amounts of money to make a movie. So they have to charge us moviegoers ridiculous amounts of money to watch them. And protect them to the hilt to prevent illegal copying.
They have used region codes, different formats, limited languages, registered computers and now 3D.
To see the 3D special effects you have to go down to the movie theater and shell out a fortune. Because nothing in your home will display the special effects properly.
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As to whether cbhd will kill blue ray, I do not think so.
Before DVD there was VCD over there and VHS over here and PAL in Europe. VCD did not kill VHS so I do not think cbhd will kill blue ray.
By simply releasing cbhd in Mandarin/Cantonese only and North American blue ray in English/French/Spanish only means a lot less stuff sneaking across the Pacific. It is much more effective than Region Codes.