Predictions: the next ten years

[bykfixer]

I predict the following over the next deade:

- The flashlight market will continue to shrink as more and more use celphones for lighting. Manufacturers will turn to drone lights.

- Samsung will come with a 3000 lumen flashlight. (run time 5.8 minutes)

- Woods Walker will share a bowl of granola with Sasquatch, Scout24 will run out of lyrics for his sig-line and quote famous authors and Archimedes will close duplicate threads.
Edit: RIP Woods Walker. End edit.

- Double A sized flashlights will outsell Starbucks coffee.

- Gene Malkoff will be Time person of the year.

- Light bulbs will be back in vogue.

- Hot Wheels cars will still be under a dollar.

- Google will still wrongly predict my search habits.

- PK will make a rose wood flashlight…thorns included.

- And Mrs Fixer will still be cool with all those flashlights scattered about my home.

 

[thermal guy]

Lol! 😂😂. Good predictions. Probably all will hit.

 

[scout24]

Lol, I fear greatly your cellphone prediction may come to fruition. The only fly in the ointment will be if cellphones become MORE capable and battery tech doesn't keep up. Song lyrics? Got plenty... 😉

 

[Modernflame]

Solid state batteries? I hope they come in a 16340 format.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0nA8CfxBqA&t=7s

 

[lightfooted]

"-thorns included" YES! I nearly spat out my tea at that...classic PK.

 

[richbuff]

"Predictions: the next ten years"

I predict: The increasingly steeper decline toward the imminent fall of human civilization, except in one area: More lumens and throw per size flashlights.

 

[FenixRising]

Thanks for that link about the Solid State batteries. I learnt something new just now.

I have a conspiracy theory that they can squeeze more into a 16340 already but manufacturers would rather get you into a bigger pair of shoes (18650.)

Not trying to troll, but seriously another 300 milliamps in a 16340 would be significant.

I just happen to carry my little lights more than the bigger ones so I think about it a lot. Those USB mini charge ports take up some room.

Please don't hit me if I'm wrong.

 

[thermal guy]

On a serious note I'm thinking LEP. It has a ways to go but might put LED out of business in 5-10 years.

 

[Kernelpanic]

Safer battery options, still high capacity but less likely to go poof 🔥💥
i would also like to see Elzetta produce their existing Modular range take 18650's
KP

 

[idleprocess]

On a serious note I'm thinking LEP. It has a ways to go but might put LED out of business in 5-10 years.

In 5-10 years it is likely to mature, but I suspect it's not going to threaten LED on either a cost or efficiency basis.

 

[Random Dan]

In 9-10 years HDS will break the 400 lumen barrier :nana:

 

[scout24]

RandomDan- You can have that now, just gotta velcro two together... :nana:

 

[nbp]

325 has been available for a while, I doubt 400 is very far off.

 

[CelticCross74]

I predict massive leaps in the battery field first off. Second off I predict completely programmable lights that can plug right into a computer giving the user complete control about how said flashlights function.

I also predict lights that you can manually change beam color all you want. Kind of like how a Ford Mustang allows you to change the interior lights to whatever you want.

I predict liquid cooled high output lights to come to market and stay there as they advance.

I predict LED tech will make massive leaps in in tech. For example these 16+ LED giant lights that put out 32000 lumens etc will only need ONE emitter to do it.

Ultimately I predict 1 for all usage LEDS. Single LEDS that can put out 4 plus totally different colors in perfect beam profiles no matter which color is chose.

I predict Surefire will expand their line of Intellibeam lights. I have 4 of these. They work amazingly well.

 

[idleprocess]

I predict massive leaps in the battery field first off.

I'm not sure that a massive leap (or leaps) in the battery field is out there in ten years, but there's been enough movement in the field that something seems likely to emerge that will exceed the capabilities of li-ion that gets commercialized.

 

[orbital]

+

Filament LED advancements

Really find this segment interesting w/ endless possibilities.
High performance car/vehicle bulbs being direct replacements, home/business lighting units.
Hopefully creative flashlight stuff -<


btw:: they last faaaaaar longer than chip based led bulbs

 

[finn]

On a serious note I'm thinking LEP. It has a ways to go but might put LED out of business in 5-10 years.

By what mechanism can LEP exceed LED efficiency? Best-case-efficiency-scenario, it should still be a diode exciting a phosphor, but with extra efficiency-reducing steps. From my limited understanding, at least.

 

[archimedes]

I think that the advantage of LEP over LED is in generating greater (more intense) surface brightness from a smaller area, not any improvement in overall efficiency.

In fact, as mentioned, I would guess that LEP would likely be rather less efficient in terms of total output.

 

[finn]

I think that the advantage of LEP over LED is in generating greater (more intense) surface brightness from a smaller area, not any improvement in overall efficiency.

In fact, as mentioned, I would guess that LEP would likely be rather less efficient in terms of total output.

This is my understanding too. That is great in some applications, but it's an extremely niche metric. In reality, LEDs are going to be around until something exceeds their lumens/watt. Or lumens/price, but they are already made mostly from inexpensive non-rare materials.

Batteries on the other hand... It's not impossible we could see the same situation that happened with DRAM, where increased demand from one sector causes quadrupling in price. EVs or residential energy storage could do this. Future access to lithium/cobalt is a least a little bit tenuous. A $20 price tag on unprotected 18650s is plausible. Alternatively, we could see a transition away from lithium and cobalt that results in lower performance. Not everything is guaranteed to get better with time.

 

[bykfixer]

More predictions;
- I will still wonder why so many people spoke ill of the stock E01 beam, even after noticing I'm wearing a blue and a black sock in daytime after getting dressed by the light of one.

- There will be even less honest politicians in Parlament.

- There will be flashlights sold in box stores that say "endorsed by the US Space Force".

- On Friday the 13th folks will still swear they are not suspicious as they carefully walk around, not under a ladder.

- Sky Lumen will be the official light builder for the US Space Force.

- My Elzetta Alpha hi/lo will still flicker because I put off sending it back for repair. I'll re-discover it in my night stand drawer in 5 years and swear this is the best nature call light ever until it starts flickering again and I'll stick it back in the drawer saying "someday I'm going to get it fixed".

- And Mrs Fixer will still use 300 lumens at 2am to answer the call of nature.