U.S. lithium production

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bykfixer

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jtr1962

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So then what, go back to internal combustion

Sodium ion is starting to come online. Add to that the fact we have huge reserves of lithium here in the US which will likely be exploited. Then there's mining lithium from seawater. How many times have we heard there's going to be a shortage of x in y number of years, only to reach that year with barely a ripple? You don't think people are working out ways around this as we speak?

ICE is largely done except as a niche product. We just haven't put all the nails in the coffin. The turning point will be when EVs cost less than an equivalent ICE with no subsidies. We're practically there. The second turning point will be when it gets harder to refuel your ICE. As EV adoption increases, gas stations will be closing en masse. Remember this is a marginal business. In many places if even 10% of their customers go (because they went to EV), the numbers no longer work. Of course, they can try replacing some pumps with quick chargers but if most people charge overnight at home there's only so far that strategy will go.
 

Lips

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Your responses suggest no effort undertaken on your part so ... it's been fun?
If you saw my "Under" effort you'd pass out. (you were/are a moderator or I may be on a Turbo-Left/Lift?...) You explained my post so I drew interest... It all just reminded me of my Great Uncle (grandfathers brother for most mortals) who was a hard-nose World War II paratrooper with 3 combat jumps in Italy. He was a wealth of knowledge & tenacity but could be a real mean Son of a B. One day he looked straight into the eyes of my friend (& his) who was about ten years older than me and a full-fledged Captain in the National Guard, over the local Engineer Battalion; My Great Uncle said to him "you are the smartest dumb person I have ever met"! I am not sure why that memory came to my mind...
 

turbodog

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.... California and Canada dumps tons of carbon into the air with constant wildfires ...

For those not fluent in chemistry... burning in a fire and degrading/rotting are essentially the same thing. Both release carbon into the air as CO2.
 

turbodog

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... As EV adoption increases, gas stations will be closing en masse....

Not gonna happen. Gas/Diesel will still be readily sold decades from now. Then there's the charging aspect for the public. And finally, not to be counted out, is the convenience store itself... lots of food sales/etc.
 

idleprocess

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Not gonna happen. Gas/Diesel will still be readily sold decades from now.
Station count may reduce over time, but even in states with mandates like WA and CA I doubt it's going to be anything dramatic.

And finally, not to be counted out, is the convenience store itself... lots of food sales/etc.
I'd speculate that some 75% of the traffic at the local QT (regional filling station/C-store chain) isn't buying fuel.
 

jtr1962

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Not gonna happen. Gas/Diesel will still be readily sold decades from now. Then there's the charging aspect for the public. And finally, not to be counted out, is the convenience store itself... lots of food sales/etc.
Station count may reduce over time, but even in states with mandates like WA and CA I doubt it's going to be anything dramatic.


I'd speculate that some 75% of the traffic at the local QT (regional filling station/C-store chain) isn't buying fuel.
This is highly dependent upon location and the availability of alternate retail. Gas stations have been disappearing in my area over the last ~20 years. There are plenty of other places locally to get the same stuff you can get at a filling station convenience store, and at lower prices also. Add in land value where it makes more sense for the owner to build something bringing in more money than a filling station. What you both say may hold true in rural areas and exurbs, but in or near major metros there are all the factors I mentioned. Besides that, I wouldn't put it past NYC government to outright ban selling gas or diesel within city limits once we get a few years past the bans of sales of gas cars in the state. In the end there's the most bang for the buck if metro areas adopt EVs first. The reduction in pollution alone will save billions in health care costs eventually.
 

idleprocess

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This is highly dependent upon location and the availability of alternate retail. Gas stations have been disappearing in my area over the last ~20 years.
I do not doubt your observations nor your predictions for NYC which may also be applicable to the true urban core of the relatively few other walkable major cities.

However in the overwhelming remainder of car-dependent America with its suburban development even in core cities I don't think that either the filling station nor the C-store is going to recede very quickly. While I've seen the occasional removal of a filling station to recover a specific hard corner for other purposes despite the remediation cost, there's no driver for this to accelerate. The truly high-value real estate areas - downtown, uptown, central business districts, top-end retail/residential/commercial - are already barren of filling stations.

And at some point filling stations will probably just transition to address the inherent weirdness of many public EV charging stations: located in oddball spots without canopies, no attendants, and no creature comforts for their users.
 

IMA SOL MAN

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Sodium ion is starting to come online. Add to that the fact we have huge reserves of lithium here in the US which will likely be exploited. Then there's mining lithium from seawater. How many times have we heard there's going to be a shortage of x in y number of years, only to reach that year with barely a ripple? You don't think people are working out ways around this as we speak?

ICE is largely done except as a niche product. We just haven't put all the nails in the coffin. The turning point will be when EVs cost less than an equivalent ICE with no subsidies. We're practically there. The second turning point will be when it gets harder to refuel your ICE. As EV adoption increases, gas stations will be closing en masse. Remember this is a marginal business. In many places if even 10% of their customers go (because they went to EV), the numbers no longer work. Of course, they can try replacing some pumps with quick chargers but if most people charge overnight at home there's only so far that strategy will go.
If the Republicans win this next election, especially if Trump wins, the oil will be turned back on, and a lot of the Green agenda will be canceled or cutback. EV production will likely slow, and take a backseat to ICE vehicles as the infrastructure is much better to support ICE vehicles vs EVs. Perhaps eventually, when the infrastructure is built to support EVs, and battery technology advances sufficiently to the point that EVs are actually practical to replace ICE vehicles, a gradual change can occur as the consumers decide the timetable.

On the other hand, if the Democrats win...it's TEOTWAWKI! :eek:
 

jtr1962

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If the Republicans win this next election, especially if Trump wins, the oil will be turned back on, and a lot of the Green agenda will be canceled or cutback. EV production will likely slow, and take a backseat to ICE vehicles as the infrastructure is much better to support ICE vehicles vs EVs. Perhaps eventually, when the infrastructure is built to support EVs, and battery technology advances sufficiently to the point that EVs are actually practical to replace ICE vehicles, a gradual change can occur as the consumers decide the timetable.

On the other hand, if the Democrats win...it's TEOTWAWKI! :eek:
So Republicans love air pollution and cancer???? Battery tech is nearly there. Range is more than sufficient for 99% of trips. The only issue is recharge times but that's moot unless you're on a long trip where you'll run down the battery. For the typical commutes and errands where you only use a fraction of the range, overnight home recharging works just fine.

BTW, 13 states with collectively ~1/3 of the US population have adopted EV mandates. Those will remain in force regardless of who is President or which party controls Congress.
 
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IMA SOL MAN

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So Republicans love air pollution and cancer???? Battery tech is nearly there. Range is more than sufficient for 99% of trips. The only issue is recharge times but that's moot unless you're on a long trip where you'll run down the battery. For the typical commutes and errands where you only use a fraction of the range, overnight home recharging works just fine.

BTW, 13 states with collectively ~1/3 of the US population have adopted EV mandates. Those will remain in force regardless of who is President or which party controls Congress.
They can mandate all they want, but that doesn't make it happen. Kansas could mandate a tornado ban--Florida could mandate a hurricane ban, neither would do anything.

Dems have become disenchanted with the actions of their party, and are switching parties. These "mandate states" may see a big shift. Interesting times coming.
 

jtr1962

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They can mandate all they want, but that doesn't make it happen. Kansas could mandate a tornado ban--Florida could mandate a hurricane ban, neither would do anything.

Dems have become disenchanted with the actions of their party, and are switching parties. These "mandate states" may see a big shift. Interesting times coming.
You don't always need mandates. The automakers are all in on EVs. Even with no mandates EVs are attractive to lots of people. Not everyone needs 600 mile ranges or 5 minute recharge, although both are coming in the next few years.

Becoming disenchanted with your party doesn't necessarily imply you'll switch to another party. As I said elsewhere, we need a third party. Something is seriously wrong when the best we can do is a Presidential race between two old men.
 

Poppy

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As I said elsewhere, we need a third party. Something is seriously wrong when the best we can do is a Presidential race between two old men.
If a third party entered the race, do you think it would come from the Democratic side, or the Republican side? If it enters and doesn't win, it will likely split the vote, and allow/cause the other party to win.

That's probably what will allow Trump to win if he gets the nomination. Otherwise I think that he will lose, unless Biden becomes too feeble. Assuming that Biden remains the candidate, time will tell.

I've thrown a few bucks to Chris Christie. One thing we don't need is to give Trump four more years in power, to line up his cronies, so that when his term is up, that he can finish the job of overthrowing the government. We don't need another Fuhrer in this world, and certainly not here in the US.
 

RWT1405

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So Republicans love air pollution and cancer????

Do you really believe this?

This is an example of why I consider you a wacko extremist Leftist Socialist/Marxist.

For the typical commutes and errands where you only use a fraction of the range, overnight home recharging works just fine.

How exactly do you know anything about the "typical" anything, when it comes to driving and owning a vehicle?
 

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jtr1962

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Do you really believe this?

This is an example of why I consider you a wacko extremist Leftist Socialist/Marxist.
So ICE vehicles don't pollute and anyone who likes clean air is socialist/marxist. Got it.

The GOP lost me due to sh*t like this.

How exactly do you know anything about the "typical" anything, when it comes to driving and owning a vehicle?
Plenty of sources for that like this one:


0.8% of trips are 100 miles or more.
0.1% of trips are 500 miles or more.

Most EVs these days have at least 200 mile range. That covers 99.2% of round trips.
 
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