Still looking for the ballpark figures. Here's what I found so far:
Formula for throw:
Found here , including useful notes and diagrams on Led and aspherics.
Ibeam = ((G x πR2) / ds2) x Isource
G is the correction factor for the form of the lens. (Look at diagram at linked site.)
Pixr2 is the diameter of the lens
ds2 is the area of the led-die
Isource is the Lux of the led at a given Amp.
For optics:
Throw is determined by the area (diameter=3,14xradius2)) of the lens.
Theoretically: 4 x the surface area, gives 2 x throw. (something with inversed square law?)
The longer the focal length, (or the higher the F-number, as it is related) the narrower the beam. At the same distance the spot or projection is smaller with a wider lens. As you can not make more light then there is from the Led, this means with a more narrow beam you have the same light but more concentrated beam (or spot at same distance ) hence more throw.
Diameter, F-number and focal length are related.
The focal length (back focal length as it is named for plano convex ) is the distance between Led and lens at which it projects a sharp image of the die.
F-number is focal length divided by the effective lens diameter (or 'clear window without rim/edge'). This F-number (see wiki) determines how many light of the Led can be effectively used from the led, when compared to the Flux-vs-Angle diagram in the datasheet of the given Led.
In practice the distance between Led and lens is limited to a few inches, as hardly any light will enter the lens otherwise.
There must be an optimum in each set up, but I dont know yet how to calculate this. Also I dont know yet how to compare above formula to real world lux-measurements. Better experiment if you have some lenses at hand.