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high-end lights and the economy......

pezdragon

Newly Enlightened
Joined
Jan 22, 2008
Messages
59
Location
Bay Area, Ca.
O.K.

Let me be the one who offers this observation. The market as we all know is down. Money is tight. I think the market for the best of anything is weak. I have watched many GREAT deals on Ti lights pieces (McGizmo's) go wanting. I think this will pass, and the market will pickup.

I see this as a stormy period right now and things will pick up....

Pez
 
yeah-i´d love to send a bailout to get a MCLuxIII Ti PD-S :D
But i don´t think the hawaiian manufacturers of luxury goods are in serious trouble...

Come on-one more wave!!!

Have fun,

Tom
 
In general, I think perception trumps reality when it comes to market demand. This is what makes marketing so key for success.

I have left the marketing of my offerings up to the community for the most part in the spirit of letting the lights speak for themselves. Obviously they don't speak but they do perform certain tasks which users can comment on.

As things have turned out, I now have good inventory of what I think are two of my best lights, to date, and the interest in these lights is soft right now. I have no doubt that this is due in part to the time of the year and likely to a much greater extent due to a troubled and tight economy that is likely effecting all of us to some extent or other. Here on Maui, where the tourist trade is the backbone of the economy, things are very grim for many of my friends and acquaintances. If anyone gets up against the wall and finds they need to sell their house for instance, they are really in a bind!! :sick2:

I would guess for some, their discretionary income is limited at the moment. For others, income itself may be uncertain. It's certainly a time to prioritize needs over wants.

I think Pez is correct that it is a storm at present and many of us simply need to ride it out, best we can. It is a buyer's market right now in the realm of flashlights but more significant in the greater market and economy at large. There will be some good deals available for those in a position to buy being offered up by those who need to bail out and sell. The health and prosperity of the market is up to the market and the perceptions of those active in the market, IMHO.

Until recently, my lights would typically sell in the B/S/T for prices greater than the original price. I would attribute this to limited supply as well as a healthy demand and interest in them. Had I been so inclined, I might have tried to exploit this situation by artificially limiting my offerings as well as bumping up the prices. I didn't because it is against my principles and a game I am not interested in playing. I want to build lights for as long as I can and as long as there is interest in them. I will offer them at prices I feel are reasonable and let the chips fall where they may.

The reason I am posting and commenting here is because I am being effected by the soft market at present and I want to share my perceptions as well as attitude about it. I didn't ride the higher demand by increasing my prices and by the same token, I have no intention of discounting or dropping my prices in these lean times or as might be influenced by sales in B/S/T.

Whether the demand is great or weak, my ability to supply and offer lights is definitely limited. I will be holding to my prices and riding this storm out best I can. If the storm lasts long enough, I may be forced to put my efforts elsewhere which will in a way put more premium or limitations on these lights. :shrug:

As I said above, I believe perception trumps reality. I have confidence in the reality and can only hope that perceptions clear. I say this for all of us and my concern goes well beyond these lights and my personal lot in life.

My home here on Maui is worth a lot more to me than I could presently sell it for and the good news is I have no plans or desire to sell it. The same can be said for other items and their real value VS today's market price.
 
I dont buy these because they may go up in value. I buy these lights because they are a marvel of the best of class for this type of technology. This is 2008 not 1931. Every one buys these lights for their own reasons.
 
McGizmo,
I think you may be feeling the recession a bit more as a custom builder for a luxury item. And in constrast to many other luxury items, your flashlights' appeal is mainly for the buyer him(her)self. In other words, I don't think very many of your lights are bought as gifts for others. I was just reading a report for Black Friday that polled parents. While they said they may cut back on gift spending for themselves, but the majority said they would not cut back on gift spending for their kids.
I work for a large multi-national company and manage a portion of our R&D portfolio between Asia and the US. Let me tell you, the business mood is very somber from our HQ in NY to our regional HQs in Asia. However, one thing our company (150+ years old) does hold firm is the belief in R&D because that is our future. We can scale manufacturing to reflect market conditions (and we have), but R&D is the last thing to go. In fact, a downturn is a great opportunity to fix and improve things that cannot be fixed during a heavy upcycle. Keeping positive and continuing the efforts will allow companies to emerge out of a downcycle stronger than before. In many cases, whether or not something is a threat or an opportunity is a matter of perspective.
Regarding your work, I think you have built a very strong base here on CPF by offering what many believe is not only the best-in-class, but the best-period flashlights. Your lights clearly reflect the many hours of R&D you put into them, I think you are doing the right thing in staying the course and not changing the price mix of your lights. The world economies are holding their breath underwater right now, but they WILL surface. And while I don't think you are eligible for some kind of Golden Parachute package from the Fed, if it came to changing your business I would hope that your customer base would be all the support that you need.

Bruce
 
Crisis?? What crisis??? Then they show you a picture of the local Walmart entrance at 5 am on black ( or should we say green) Friday...

P.S. this was on the local newspaper...
 
My son, and 99 other fortunate buyers, paid just under a grand each for the last run of the SPY 007. Of the 100, 20 were presold & 80 sold within two weeks. Having a limited number available certainly motivates buyers.

Our production line is currently running three days instead of five. But none of the Ti goodies are yet on the chopping block. I'd sooner sell my body parts:crackup:
 
Well, you have a son. You don't need the parts any more, after all. :nana: :aaa:

A lot of people have less work here, too, unfortunately, and no one knows where it will go. It is one of those times where I feel good to be a doctor ... no crisis will endanger my job, just my savings.

bernie
 
While there is no doubt that the economy has hit the skids, I'd say the impact on the high-end light market would appear to be fairly muted thus far. As another poster pointed out, when one hundred pocket Ti lights can sell out in two weeks at a record $1000 bucks a pop, there's clearly money still around for a well-crafted product of sufficient pedigree and rarity.

If the market for Ti high-end lights has softened. I'd say it has as much to do with supply and demand issues as much as anything else. Where the total Ti supply once numbered about 2 dozen McGizmos, there are now thousands of Ti lights from various mfgrs, and hundreds of McGizmo Ti lights alone. At a certain point the market for $500 flashlights gets saturated.

As for "GREAT" deals left wanting, I sure haven't seen 'em. For the most part, I'm still seeing prices that are 10-20% above the original purchase price for lights that just aren't that rare anymore. And I don't call a sale at the original purchase price a great deal, except for the seller, who got to own and enjoy the light for a while AND recoup all his money when done. What's not to love about that? If/when secondhand market prices fall below the original purchase price for desirable lights, then I think we can talk about a softening market here on CPF.
 
Until recently, my lights would typically sell in the B/S/T for prices greater than the original price. I would attribute this to limited supply as well as a healthy demand and interest in them. Had I been so inclined, I might have tried to exploit this situation by artificially limiting my offerings as well as bumping up the prices. I didn't because it is against my principles and a game I am not interested in playing. I want to build lights for as long as I can and as long as there is interest in them. I will offer them at prices I feel are reasonable and let the chips fall where they may.

I for one have definitely noticed that you intentionally did not try to maximize price by running auctions on B/S/T or doing something else to exploit demand for your lights. I think you choose the right long term model - and that is why I have 3 of your lights and likely to buy more. We appreciate it!


Whether the demand is great or weak, my ability to supply and offer lights is definitely limited. I will be holding to my prices and riding this storm out best I can. If the storm lasts long enough, I may be forced to put my efforts elsewhere which will in a way put more premium or limitations on these lights. :shrug:

Good luck. My employer recently entered bankruptcy...so I for one am cutting back on purchases... sooner or later we will all emerge and things will normalize...but for the short term I guess we are all going to be a little more conservative in how we spend...as you mentioned before...prioritize needs over wants.
 
I guess the ecomonic situation is far worse outside of CONUS. The dollar exchange rate gone up 150% in a month or two. The question is how worse it gets, and how long it sustains. And I guess spy007 was very lucky in that sense of time line when the sales wave was hold, it was on the border line of good times and bad times. Well, best wishes for all the CPFers !!! :thumbsup:
 
I for one have definitely noticed that you intentionally did not try to maximize price by running auctions on B/S/T or doing something else to exploit demand for your lights. I think you choose the right long term model - and that is why I have 3 of your lights and likely to buy more. We appreciate it!


Yes. Appreciated indeed. Very good long-term approach and happy-customer approach.
Rock solid prices for rock solid toos, prices that suggest a real value and not inflation due to a higher demand. Prices that have substance behind them, a value that goes beyond a collector's value. The value of a great great tool that has a cost because it is not cheap to develop or produce, not because it is the hype.

bernie
 
Well thanks for the kind words guys. In hind sight, I am sorry that the large wave of LunaSol 20's didn't hit the beach a few months sooner as had been planned and hoped to be the case. But then although it might have meant more sales for me, perhaps there would be more cases of members needing to bail now and hoping to recoop their expenses in the B/S/T? :thinking: :shrug:

Perhaps the market dynamics on CPF and some members created a titanium bubble that has now burst?!? :oops: :nana:

I know my plan is to hold firm with what I have presently made available and at the prices offered. Obviously I am not going to move forward with additional sets to be machined and assembled since I have inventory on hand and sales are presently soft.

I need to continue to be productive and generate revenue but there are other areas for me to investigate and I have been letting the fun and success of these Ti waves take precedence of my time and focus. There is always opportunity in change and challenges to confront.
 
I would have to agree with the observation that the low(er) prices on custom B/S/T for McGizmo Ti lights are due to more than just the recession. That is certainly part of it. But on top of that is the Spy007 Ti sale and also the recent Ti PD-S wave and large wave of LS20's. A Ti bubble of sorts, like McGizmo says! But it's not really a bubble, however. Not like the housing bubble, anyway. It's just simply that a lot of the Titanium's market has been tapped for the time being!

I've recently kept Warren Buffet's saying in mind: when others are greedy, be fearful; when others are fearful, be greedy. So now's the time to be greedy.

If you have the cash, now is an absolutely incredible time to buy high end stuff --especially McGizmo Titanium lights. They are easily worth 20 to 35 percent more than they have been selling for recently, and a lot more than that depending on the availability. Prices may be unusually low right now, but that definitely won't last.
 
If you have the cash, now is an absolutely incredible time to buy high end stuff . . .

12-14 months ago most believed the housing crisis had hit bottom.

When the DOW dropped below 10k, most believed we had hit bottom.

When the Feds stepped in to secure our financial system, most believed we had hit bottom.

Dozens of major corporations dropping like dominos, GM on the brink, rising unemployment, . . . .

Every time it seems we've hit bottom, the floor gives way.

I believe the opportune time to buy still lies ahead in the not so near future. Let's hope I'm very wrong.
 
Like Don, I put my lights up for sale as soon as I can get them completed and have time to test them throughly. I had great delays due to my summer from h3ll but that is over now. As you know the market disaster had started a couple weeks before my sale and I noticed many people that previously wanted a light bowed out due to the uncertain times. The hole thing made me very nervous.

The down turn of the economy is likely to last for a year and then some so we are all going to have to calculate what to do about this in ways that far exceed decisions about our hobbies. One bright side to this is that exotic flashlights still cost less than many high end hobbies like cars and vacations. Let's hope those people come down here and slum it with us. ;)

What is the bottom? 6500???



Cheers
Dave
 
What is the bottom? 6500???

There seems to be some resistance at around 8000-8500. But the world economies are obviously very precarious at the moment. I don't know exactly how badly custom flashlight makers are being hit, but I think js hit the nail on the head: a combination of recession and this niche market's saturation. However, I disagree that this is a good time to go buy all of the discounted Ti lights in B/S/T. Unlike stocks or traditional investments, I don't think discounted custom lights represent any kind of reasonable investment plan. If people want to buy just because they like a certain light, then there are used lights out there now that are lower than the purchase price. But not by much and especially considering that new inventory exists in some cases.

There is no doubt we will be in this recession through 2009. Even with cornerstone banks closing every week and even entire countries going bankrupt, I don't think this is going to be something that we can or should spend ourselves out of. The markets need to unwind as naturally as possible, governments should step in only to prevent total collapse of the house of cards. I believe our custom flashlight makers have a very strong support base here, but it is a niche market and diversification is key for long term survival.
 

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