More Great News For U.S. Economy

[LuxLuthor]

Despite the series of negative alarmist comments and certainty of being in a recession, the U.S. economy continues to prove its resiliency in the face of daunting stresses.

While the Gross Domestic Product has very real practical limitations and glaring omissions, none-the-less the technical definition of a "recession" requiring two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth has been dashed with today's announcement from The Treasury Department that the 2nd Quarter ending in June had 1.9% growth (1st Quarter was only 0.9%).

I am not saying that the U.S. economy is "healthy" with its massive debt, unsustainable govt. growth & entitlement programs, federal reserve monetary policies, and untenable gridlock in reaching sensible long term legislative solutions.

I am saying that when you take into account the unbelievable economic shocks of 9/11, military actions in Afganistan/Iraq, weak U.S. dollar, housing/sub-prime mortgage disaster, oil/energy prices, bank & financial institutional failures, credit/lending crunch, low interest rates, inflation, and a steady diet of trashing anything related to the current U.S. administration--in spite of all that & more, to see almost 2% growth over the last 3 months GDP is astounding.

Clearly this economic "slowdown" is following all past cycles where a period of growth is always followed by a period of slowdown or recession as a normal sequence. These numbers are strongly related to growing exports and investments in the USA where everything is much cheaper due to the lower U.S. Dollar.

As a concerned American citizen, there is much to yet be concerned about, but despite the constant drivel of oppressive negativity, there is also much to be proud of. :candle:

 

[LukeA]

What is the growth number with regard to PPP?

 

[Badbeams3]

Every time I hear some hopefull news it`s followed by bad news. Doesn`t seem to be any lasting traction.

I`m not sure we have seen a bottom yet in the stock market. And summer will be coming to an end. Housing sales will likely drop further as fall...back to school time aproaches. Prices will continue to decline.

I think if oil stayes down we should see a slight improvement in stocks...for a little while. I`m concerned the biggest problem for the stock market/economy is still ahead.

The ageing baby boomer group. As they retire they will start to pull from stock market rather than add to it. And they will no longer be able to sell thier homes for big bucks and down size...with a wallet full of leftover $$$$...as so many had planned. They will lean even harder on withdrawls from thier 401`s and such.

I fear the effect has been very underestimated. And will start around 2010 and last a long time...12 or more years.

 

[LuxLuthor]

I'm taking bets on how long this thread will stay open. :wave:

What is the growth number with regard to PPP?

Several possible sources of your acronym. "Private-Public Partnerships," or more likely "Purchasing Power Parities" which takes into account international currency comparison valuations. Assuming this is a veiled disqualification of the 2nd Quarter 1.9% GDP, I already addressed the low USD $.

My outlook is to look at the glass being half-full...especially when it was expected to be an empty glass with a hole in the bottom.

Every time I hear some hopefull news it`s followed by bad news. Doesn`t seem to be any lasting traction.

I`m not sure we have seen a bottom yet in the stock market. And summer will be coming to an end. Housing sales will likely drop further as fall...back to school time aproaches. Prices will continue to decline.

I think if oil stayes down we should see a slight improvement in stocks...for a little while. I`m concerned the biggest problem for the stock market/economy is still ahead.

The ageing baby boomer group. As they retire they will start to pull from stock market rather than add to it. And they will no longer be able to sell thier homes for big bucks and down size...with a wallet full of leftover $$$$...as so many had planned. They will lean even harder on withdrawls from thier 401`s and such.

I fear the effect has been very underestimated. And will start around 2010 and last a long time...12 or more years.

You have many valid points and concerns, but as I have said before...would you have felt better if this GDP report came back with a negative 10% growth for the quarter? Given the shocking financial events, this result is way beyond expectations.

There are several factors that may mitigate some of your concerns, but it depends on your outlook. These are a few reasonable ideas I could forsee off the top of my head:

• Increasing foreign ownership which injects new, unexpected capital and market demand for many types of real estate & corporate assets.

• Increasing immigration into the USA (hopefully done legally) resulting in a new source of consumer demand, labor opportunities for people to move up the socio-economic-educational ladder. They are a new, unexpected tax revenue source. There is no shortage of people who want to move here, no matter how bad anyone thinks the USA is.

• New, self-sustaining energy development (combined with sensible conservation) could not only wipe out much of the massive US deficit, but with the U.S. natural resource reserves--could be a huge source of energy export revenues.

• Radical changes in federal laws & policies could have amazing results. A few examples would be eliminating defecit spending, decrease entitlement programs, flat tax filing, or abolish the IRS altogether and switch to a consumption tax (with exemptions to take care of low income earners). Imagine abolishing the Federal Reserve, or put the Treasury Department's ability to print money on a very tight leash.

The main thing is to notice when we have any suprisingly good news, it can be a cause for optimism. Persistent Pessimism is an essential ingredient for depressions, recessions, and economic pandemonium...in addition to its destruction of the "PP" individual.

As I said originally, there is much to be concerned about, and yet there can be much to appreciate as an American. I mean, how horrible is your life on a day-to-day basis? Now imagine living in North Korea, Burma (Myanmar), Ethiopia, Afganistan, Haiti, or Rwanda.

I would rather live in the USA during the 1920's depression and soup lines rather than under a communist or fascist dictatorship. There are also many other wonderful countries in the world today that should be equally proud & celebrated.

The point is how surprising this GDP result was given the economic tumult. Anyway, I made my point.

 

[LukeA]

Several possible sources of your acronym. "Private-Public Partnerships," or more likely "Purchasing Power Parities" which takes into account international currency comparison valuations. Assuming this is a veiled disqualification of the 2nd Quarter 1.9% GDP, I already addressed the low USD $.

Well, only one meaning of that acronym is at all relevant to the discussion, there's no need to bring in other, irrelevant, ideas. You certainly said that the dollar is weak, but beyond that you didn't address the root of my question, let alone any other level of it, which asks why this small GDP growth is so significant in a climate of unprecedented growth around the world.

Indubitably the 1.9% GDP growth in the United States is better than a smaller positive growth or a zero or negative growth, but there is more wealth in the world now than in the twentieth century, and that means that our 1.9% growth equates to less on the world stage than it would have, say, during the Cold War.

I look forward to a United States that can be a player on the world stage without being a heavy-handed unilateral superpower, but that will be a long time coming. I say the road ahead will be long because the United States has acted unilaterally for two generations, and our politicians aren't skilled in cooperation.

 

[LuxLuthor]

I'm taking bets on how long this thread will stay open. :wave:

The main thing is to notice when we have any suprisingly good news, it can be a cause for optimism. Persistent Pessimism is an essential ingredient for depressions, recessions, and economic pandemonium...in addition to its destruction of the "PP" individual.

As I said originally, there is much to be concerned about, and yet there can be much to appreciate as an American. I mean, how horrible is your life on a day-to-day basis? Now imagine living in North Korea, Burma (Myanmar), Ethiopia, Afganistan, Haiti, or Rwanda.

I would rather live in the USA during the 1920's depression and soup lines rather than under a communist or fascist dictatorship. There are also many other wonderful countries in the world today that should be equally proud & celebrated.

The point is how surprising this GDP result was given the economic tumult. Anyway, I made my point.

Yeah as expected, Luke, right on key. How stupid of me to ever focus on anything good or positive with such a demon-spawn administration in power, let alone find something so ludicrous as an astounding GDP to be proud of.

Let's see, you said the source of our evil begins with American Unilateralism two generations ago, that would take us back to the late 1800's. Yeah, obviously ever since then the USA has been the scum of the world, doing nothing worthwhile for anyone.

Indubitably the USA has been worse than the Third Reich, Mao, Pol Pot, and Idi Amin combined. Hopefully some kind terrorist will quickly snuff-nuke our pitiful major cities, international conglomerates, embassies, protectorates, territories, and financial holdings. Sig Heil. Long live Kim Jong Il. Praise be to Allah. There, there, Luke. Now you must feel better and can sleep in peace tonight. So sorry to have intruded on your joyful outlook.

 

[Badbeams3]

Well, the two of you didn`t agree 100%. And way more important, you all didn`t totally agree with my opinions. :banned:So...I place my bets this thread will be closed by midnight tonight

Even as I type this GM sales are reporting down 32%. I still expect an improvement before trouble starts for real in 2010 (give or take). I`m a very poor boy...I expect a lot of company in the future...I`ll feel much better then...you know the old saying...misery loves....

My goal is to be out of CCard bebt before trouble starts...lets see...$15,000 divided by 24 months more less...$1000 per month :huh: :wow: Oh, oh

 

[Empath]

So...I place my bets this thread will be closed by midnight tonight

There's no need to give it that long.

The confusing matter is that we've a place designated for such discussion. It could be a great discussion for both those involved in the discussion and for those that want to follow topics with that much drama and conflict. Yet, effort after effort is used to inject such topics into the Cafe's casual and relaxed environment. Take it to CPFU. We've many great forums there including general politics, current affairs, headlines and more.

Thread closed.