Pacific Coast Highway slides into the Pacific

SCEMan

Flashlight Enthusiast
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Nov 6, 2005
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Location
Treasure Valley, Idaho
Earthquakes are neither due nor overdue. Sure, there will be earthquakes, but geological time and human time are distant strangers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/06/...ental-drift.html?referringSource=articleShare

I don't subscribe to the NYT, but for 18 years ('97-2015) I did co-manage SCE's IT Disaster Recovery & Business Continuity department. As part of our DR/BC plan development we met regularly with Dr. Lucy Jones & DR. Kate Hutton at USGS/Caltech for briefings on California's seismic hazards, impacts, probabilities and planning & mitigation strategies for SCE assets.

You're correct that probabilistic timeframes for seismic events are an inexact science, but recent earthquake swarms (Ridgecrest, Salton Sea) have seismologists concerned about the Southern San Andreas fault. That, and the last significant event on the San Andreas Fault was 163 years ago (7.8m 1857).

But, as I recall Dr. Jones telling us; "Despite all the seismic research and study that's been done, there's no way to tell if any of the 100 or so earthquakes that occur daily in California are going to be the "big" one".
 

jtr1962

Flashaholic
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Nov 22, 2003
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Flushing, NY
To their credit, California has probably done as well as it can, with building codes designed for earthquakes, and continuous monitoring of fault lines. Hopefully when the big one strikes, the toll will be relatively small. As with volcanoes erupting, all we can do is best guess the probability of the next big event. Yellowstone erupting will dwarf anything that has happened to date with humanity. I just hope it's not for thousands of years. Even better, I hope it doesn't happen before we develop the technology to stop it.
 

ledbetter

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Jul 26, 2016
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California Central Coast
And let's be honest here, highway 1 is really solely for incredibly wealthy locals, tourists, and tv/ad/movie shots. And like other mountain roads, people figure out alternate routes when all too common disasters strike.
 

SCEMan

Flashlight Enthusiast
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Nov 6, 2005
Messages
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Location
Treasure Valley, Idaho
To their credit, California has probably done as well as it can, with building codes designed for earthquakes, and continuous monitoring of fault lines. Hopefully when the big one strikes, the toll will be relatively small.

I pray you're right, but it doesn't seem likely...

I recall being told that of the est. 1800 fatalities the majority will be due to uncontrolled fires (gas mains, etc.) as they'll be no FD response with roads destroyed and no water supply.

"CoreLogic estimates with Southern San Andreas Fault rupture will cause 3.5 million homes to be at risk with $289 billion in reconstruction value."

If this doesn't prompt you to start planning nothing will:
https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/Blog/2020/los-angeles-earthquake-prediction-and-risk
 
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