EV and Alt Fuel Vehicles, part 10

[idleprocess]

P.S.: Yeah, I do manage to summon dead threads...

Almost 10 years later? Absolutely. I remember when this thread moved to CPF Green ... then CPF Green went away.

And some truth as well:

https://youtu.be/LlvYv1SJJEY

I had a nice reply typed out then the forum decided I wasn't logged in and away it went. So here's an abbreviated response.

Sure, Tesla has issues with reliability, delivering on promises, and growing pains. They're the first automotive startup in the United States in roughly a century, so not a surprise that they're still struggling.

Model S reliability used to be something that Tesla kept quiet. The affluence of their owner base - quite often with many with multiple daily drivers to choose from - meant that their customers could tolerate Tesla's randomly failing and spending yet another day in the shop. Model 3 owners, whom are likely to have but one daily driver, will not and cannot tolerate this sort of low quality ... thus Tesla needs to up their game considerably. A friend bet another friend with a Model 3 on reserve $100 that they would not see their vehicle this year ... wish I'd thought to make that bet - I'd be $100 richer in about another week.

The commentator decries the lack of detail presented. He's right that Tesla has issued breathless press reports absent critical details. But the general motoring public is not the target market - freight companies are to some extent and distribution divisions are in particular. Some major distribution operators like Wal-Mart, UPS, and PepsiCo have signed on with Tesla for pilot programs, suggesting that they have access to more complete information and find it sufficiently compelling to test.

It'a amusing that the commentator decries Musk's PR juggernaut and its appeal to emotion, yet here he is in a video light on density relative to print and high on emotional appeal as he gives us his snappy opinions and witticisms.

The commentator does reasonably correctly assess that the battery will be staggeringly heavy, but then bafflingly implies that the motors and control electronics will also subtract from the net capacity. Motors capable of generating hundreds of HP, hundreds of lb-ft of torque and moving 20+ tons of laden truck are pretty lightweight relative to engines and transmissions capable of the same. The control electronics are going to be a rounding error. Given that diesel fuel is a significant percentage of the operating cost of a truck, it's entirely possible that using far-cheaper electricity will offer savings sufficient to alter the logic around maximizing tonnage hauled.

The commentator is correct that delivering 800kWH net to a pack in 30 minutes will require 1600MW of continuous power. Missing is the likely requirement for an additional tens of kW of external cooling to ensure the pack doesn't cook in the process. One suspects that like Tesla's supercharging network, these megachager stations will be strategically located - possibly in industrial areas or simply near substations so they can manage such staggering power requirements. I can only imagine the contacts and conductors required to manage such a charge.

Recall how I mentioned distribution divisions being the likely target market? They tend to run shorter more regimented routes and aren't as sensitive to maximum tonnage as over the road freight operators. It's very likely that they will routinely operate these vehicles with out-and-back distances below the rated range and simply slow-charge them overnight at the distribution center/depot.

I got about 11 minutes into the video then other priorities demanded my attention. If there were any bombshell reveals in the last 6 minutes I apologize for missing them.

Time will soon tell if Tesla can indeed deliver a semi that industry wants. Industrial customers will be far more demanding than personal automobile buyers and Tesla should be well aware of this, so I give the general concept some credence. Time will tell if Tesla survives to produce these things beyond the first article prototypes they rolled out for the big reveal a month ago.

 

[vadimax]

This was the best one:

I did not have time to write a short letter.

Personally I think this Tesla phenomenon is based on people desire to believe in something outstanding, no matter it contradicts the laws of physics. They manage to call EV vehicles "green" when Li-Ion cell production is poisonous as hell. They are ready to cry with relief tears when they see EV truck commercial with reflected wind generators on its side, absolutely ignoring that those wind generators kill thousands of birds, including those that are listed in The Red Book of vanishing species.

Sometimes I even think that EV idea is a dangerous and extremely expensive toy. Unless something changes dramatically in electric power storage technology, increasing power density at least twice.

P.S.: http://dailycaller.com/2017/06/30/north-carolina-lawmakers-pass-two-year-ban-on-wind-turbines/

 

[idleprocess]

This was the best one:
[/I]

Personally I think this Tesla phenomenon is based on people desire to believe in something outstanding, no matter it contradicts the laws of physics. They manage to call EV vehicles "green" when Li-Ion cell production is poisonous as hell. They are ready to cry with relief tears when they see EV truck commercial with reflected wind generators on its side, absolutely ignoring that those wind generators kill thousands of birds, including those that are listed in The Red Book of vanishing species.

I'm glad you found the time to respond to my signature then whatever else was on your mind rather than the points I raised in my post.

 

[bykfixer]

If you look at military bases you'll see tractors the size of a riding lawn mower pulling jet airplanes and very heavy cargo containers. Some go back to WW2. Still in service.

Now industry is using similar. Tesla vehicles would make great fork lifts, mini excavators on tracks, mules and all kinds of uses beyond a comuter vehicle.
Hopefully they can tap into that market while they perfect their trade.

Soichiro (pronounced So-ee-chee-row) Honda began by making a radio generator drive a bicycle run off of a combination of pine sap and gasoline. That led to Honda scooters and what is now one of the greatest automobile manufacturers on the planet during a time when the Japanese government discouraged him while favoring Mazda, Nissan, and Toyota.

I say that to say I think Tesla has a real chance at changing the game in due time.

 

[vadimax]

I'm glad you found the time to respond to my signature then whatever else was on your mind rather than the points I raised in my post.

Well, I may switch to details, but will that help?

For example, you believe that electric motors are lightweight. But if you take ( will you? ) a MACK MP8 semi truck engine [505 hp, 1860 lb/ft, 2597 lb] and try to find its electric equivalent, you will discover that it will weight nearly exactly the same. And now, suddenly, you will understand why the author decided to omit engine weight comparison

Edit: Sorry, I was wrong! The equivalent in power and torque electric engine weighs TWICE more and costs... attention! $42996 alone!!!

 

[idleprocess]

Well, I may switch to details, but will that help?

For example, you believe that electric motors are lightweight. But if you take ( will you? ) a MACK MP8 semi truck engine [505 hp, 1860 lb/ft, 2597 lb] and try to find its electric equivalent, you will discover that it will weight nearly exactly the same. And now, suddenly, you will understand why the author decided to omit engine weight comparison

Edit: Sorry, I was wrong! The equivalent in power and torque electric engine weighs TWICE more and costs... attention! $42996 alone!!!

Your observations about that particular industrial motor are indeed correct, but not necessarily relevant.

Tesla Model S motor weighs 70 pounds, 362HP, 317 ft-lb of torque (per Google). Given the differences in how electric motors rate HP and torque (average) vs internal combustion engines (peak), I suspect that about 4 would suffice - a pair per drive axle. Double the mass to address the markedly greater weight each motor has to accelerate and you're still at 560 pounds. No transmission other than a reduction gear so there's another ton or so of weight savings. I gather the Model 3 motor has a bit less HP and torque but is permanent magnet, so it's apt to be lighter still.

 

[moldyoldy]

the last portion of this thread is interesting vis-a-vis Tesla and the general EV hype relative to the electric grid which is not ready for lots of EVs.

however to my input about high-torque electric motors: when we were designing the next generation howitzer (155mm), the intent was to replace all hydraulics with electric motors. the engineers repeatedly said in meetings that they had no problem finding electric motors with sufficient torque and speeds (trapezoidal drive curves, etc.), or even generating sufficient electric power to drive these motors. but cooling these electric motors was nearly impossible. Moving a 100lb projectile from the magazine to flick-ram'd in <10 seconds was not a trivial design exercise. when the next-gen howitzer was started (sponson diesel), the fan noise was so loud I thought the vehicle would levitate! The fans were intended to attempt to dissipate the heat energy to minimize susceptibility to IR sights on tanks or anti-tank missiles. ehhhh, the Soviets proved to be very effective in triangulating Wehrmacht Artillery in WWII by sound alone and delivering counterbattery responses.

 

[vadimax]

the last portion of this thread is interesting vis-a-vis Tesla and the general EV hype relative to the electric grid which is not ready for lots of EVs.

however to my input about high-torque electric motors: when we were designing the next generation howitzer (155mm), the intent was to replace all hydraulics with electric motors. the engineers repeatedly said in meetings that they had no problem finding electric motors with sufficient torque and speeds (trapezoidal drive curves, etc.), or even generating sufficient electric power to drive these motors. but cooling these electric motors was nearly impossible. Moving a 100lb projectile from the magazine to flick-ram'd in <10 seconds was not a trivial design exercise. when the next-gen howitzer was started (sponson diesel), the fan noise was so loud I thought the vehicle would levitate! The fans were intended to attempt to dissipate the heat energy to minimize susceptibility to IR sights on tanks or anti-tank missiles. ehhhh, the Soviets proved to be very effective in triangulating Wehrmacht Artillery in WWII by sound alone and delivering counterbattery responses.

Very interesting point. EV advocates somehow prefer to consider electric motors to be an "abstract spherical horse in vacuum" (Russian saying). When they count electric motor effectiveness they like to use 97% number. The reality is 85%-97%, where 97% — is a narrow application band of conditions met. Most of the time it will be 10-15% of pure heat. This is why production high torque motors are so massive — to absorb and then dissipate tremendous thermal load. Electric motors just cannot be cooled from inside (without extreme sophistication). On the other side combustion engines feature integrated and simple liquid cooling.

 

[idleprocess]

the last portion of this thread is interesting vis-a-vis Tesla and the general EV hype

While there is indeed a legion of Tesla eleon Musk fanbase that will not tolerate the brand and the personality that they've hitched their ego to, it's a really clever and sneaky tactic for the commentator in said video to harp on the point so - by implication if you dare disagree you must be an irrational fan too.

relative to the electric grid which is not ready for lots of EVs.

It also can't handle our ever-increasing demand for air conditioning, acres of parking lots lit at night, baseboard heaters, scrap steel smelters, and all the other non-EV things we routinely hook to the grid without much concern. But no one worries about these loads - it expands to meet those loads as they come online.

A little more than a century ago one might have worried about having sufficient filling stations or refinery capacity to accommodate the burgeoning new automobile market. We worked it out then building out infrastructure from the ground up; EV's present a far lesser challenge since the electric grid is already pretty much everywhere. We won't have 10% of the driving population hook one up tomorrow - adoption will take time.

however to my input about high-torque electric motors: when we were designing the next generation howitzer (155mm), the intent was to replace all hydraulics with electric motors. the engineers repeatedly said in meetings that they had no problem finding electric motors with sufficient torque and speeds (trapezoidal drive curves, etc.), or even generating sufficient electric power to drive these motors. but cooling these electric motors was nearly impossible. Moving a 100lb projectile from the magazine to flick-ram'd in <10 seconds was not a trivial design exercise. when the next-gen howitzer was started (sponson diesel), the fan noise was so loud I thought the vehicle would levitate! The fans were intended to attempt to dissipate the heat energy to minimize susceptibility to IR sights on tanks or anti-tank missiles. ehhhh, the Soviets proved to be very effective in triangulating Wehrmacht Artillery in WWII by sound alone and delivering counterbattery responses.

Sounds like it was still an application for hydraulics rather than electric motors. Short bursts of intense/brutal work and maintaining force when slack are something they're exceptionally good at.

Very interesting point. EV advocates somehow prefer to consider electric motors to be an "abstract spherical horse in vacuum" (Russian saying). When they count electric motor effectiveness they like to use 97% number. The reality is 85%-97%, where 97% — is a narrow application band of conditions met. Most of the time it will be 10-15% of pure heat. This is why production high torque motors are so massive — to absorb and then dissipate tremendous thermal load. Electric motors just cannot be cooled from inside (without extreme sophistication). On the other side combustion engines feature integrated and simple liquid cooling.

Most of the time I see a ~90% figure quoted.

Internal combustion engines are ~65% 'pure heat' by comparison.

 

[vadimax]

While there is indeed a legion of Tesla eleon Musk fanbase that will not tolerate the brand and the personality that they've hitched their ego to, it's a really clever and sneaky tactic for the commentator in said video to harp on the point so - by implication if you dare disagree you must be an irrational fan too.


It also can't handle our ever-increasing demand for air conditioning, acres of parking lots lit at night, baseboard heaters, scrap steel smelters, and all the other non-EV things we routinely hook to the grid without much concern. But no one worries about these loads - it expands to meet those loads as they come online.

A little more than a century ago one might have worried about having sufficient filling stations or refinery capacity to accommodate the burgeoning new automobile market. We worked it out then building out infrastructure from the ground up; EV's present a far lesser challenge since the electric grid is already pretty much everywhere. We won't have 10% of the driving population hook one up tomorrow - adoption will take time.


Sounds like it was still an application for hydraulics rather than electric motors. Short bursts of intense/brutal work and maintaining force when slack are something they're exceptionally good at.



Most of the time I see a ~90% figure quoted.

Internal combustion engines are ~65% 'pure heat' by comparison.

Consumer EV vehicles are not an issue. An issue is a commercial half truck with a 14 ton battery which needs to suck 1.6 MW in half an hour in the middle of nowhere.

Internal combustion engine features a coolant liquid flow 1/3 of an inch from its burning camera. And most part of that heat is immediately removed from it with exhaust (the source of its relatively low effectiveness — aborted adiabatic expansion).

 

[gadget_lover]

I saw a post a few days ago with a chart from Cummins. It seems an 18 wheeler will use 265 HP at 440 ft/lb of torque to drive 65 MPH on flat land without a headwind. Go faster or uphill and the power needs go up, as does the fuel consumption.

That's quite within the range of an electric motor. Don't need a 1 ton motor to do it either.

Dan

 

[vadimax]

I saw a post a few days ago with a chart from Cummins. It seems an 18 wheeler will use 265 HP at 440 ft/lb of torque to drive 65 MPH on flat land without a headwind. Go faster or uphill and the power needs go up, as does the fuel consumption.

That's quite within the range of an electric motor. Don't need a 1 ton motor to do it either.

Dan

But all half trucks face a miserable problem — merging the traffic on a highway. You either stand and wait indefinitely (or until someone kindly lets you in) or floor accelerator to fill an opened gap. And exactly at that moment you need full power and torque.

 

[idleprocess]

Consumer EV vehicles are not an issue. An issue is a commercial half truck with a 14 ton battery which needs to suck 1.6 MW in half an hour in the middle of nowhere.

Such expansion will need to be coordinated with the utility - significantly more than a gas station, indeed. Give them some lead time - and toss some project money their way - and it can happen. These will most likely be situated along major transportation corridors - like their supercharger stations for personal autos - where access to substantial power is easier to arrange.

Much like how one cannot obtain a vehicle for US $20k with a 3 second 0-60 time capable of 200 MPH weighing <1000lb with world-beating offroad performance capable of hauling 14 tons that fits in a single parking spot and runs reliably for 20 years of brutal flogging with little maintenance, this truck is no more capable of being everything to everyone than any other real-world vehicle. I expect they'll be used for distribution rather than freight based on the companies placing pre-orders and their other limitations. I'm a bit surprised that Tesla hasn't toed the waters for box trucks in the local distribution/delivery market - I see dozens every day living near a major international airport - but perhaps that market is more crowded with entrants than just the beleaguered Smith Electric and some tentative pilot projects from the likes of Benz and the long(er)-haul market is where they see opportunity.

Internal combustion engine features a coolant liquid flow 1/3 of an inch from its burning camera. And most part of that heat is immediately removed from it with exhaust (the source of its relatively low effectiveness — aborted adiabatic expansion).

Heat is pretty much not an issue with a reasonably well-designed motor since waste heat is small relative to the input power and it has but one moving part. Tesla's reliability issues seem to stem mostly from early driveshafts/U-joints, electronics, body components, and interior - here's Consumer Reports' data on the Model S and here's their methodology. Save a blip in 2013 looks like they've not had any notable problems with their motors. Getting the motor right was apparently not as difficult as making the fancy door handles pop out consistently, getting the window regulators to work reliably, or ensuring the ECU firmware doesn't wander off the reservation. For comparison, here's CR's data on the Nissan Leaf.

But all half trucks face a miserable problem — merging the traffic on a highway. You either stand and wait indefinitely (or until someone kindly lets you in) or floor accelerator to fill an opened gap. And exactly at that moment you need full power and torque.

Torque in motors is markedly different than engines. They produce peak torque when stalled while engines typically peak somewhere middle of their RPM band. If you've ever seen electric vehicle drag race videos they tend to beat ICE vehicles off the line for this reason. Engines also specify torque as a peak figure at whatever RPM and occasionally give you the curve while motors tend to specify an average figure. The "getting on the highway" problem is not something that a reasonably well-designed EV suffers.